Australia’s housing targets hurt by Middle East war as targets slip nationwide

No state or territory is on track to meet its housing accord targets, despite a slew of initiatives to boost supply and improve affordability.

Only 219,000 new homes were built in the first five quarters of the agreement, well shy of the required run rate of 280,000 new homes, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council revealed in its first quarterly report on Wednesday.

The accord set an ambitious target of 1.2 million new homes across Australia over the five years to June 2029, but the national target is only on track to be completed by June 2030.

Victoria, Western Australia and the ACT were the best performing jurisdictions, but were only set to complete their share of the target by September 2029.

NSW was on track to finish by June 2031, while the Northern Territory would only be done after 2034.

Victoria and the ACT had made the greatest progress on the accord, with 23 per cent of the target built to date.

Measures such as relaxing zoning for middle density housing and removing third-party appeals for public housing appeared to be paying dividends for the ACT, with 117 per cent more dwellings approved in the year to January compared to the 12 months prior.

But the outlook for Victoria was less promising.

Building approvals fell one per cent over the year to January, despite efforts to boost density in priority areas, streamlining approvals and a vacant land tax to unlock more space for development.

NSW and Victoria have led the way with zoning and planning reforms to make it easier to build, but all states and territories have implemented some initiatives to increase supply since the start of the accord.

“The quarterly report highlights the tangible progress that has been made since the start of the accord period and the continuing efforts by states and territories to increase the supply of housing,” said the council’s chair, Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz.

During the last quarter, building approvals and completions were up 17 per cent compared to the final quarter before the accord started.

Although the cost to build a new home has fallen 0.9 per cent in real terms since the start of the accord, Australia’s housing supply ambitions have taken a hit from the war in the Middle East.

Surging oil prices have already caused material costs to increase, while the industry is concerned that supplies of PVC pipe could be disrupted.

Housing Minister Clare O’Neil held a roundtable with industry leaders on Tuesday, exploring pathways to access alternative markets and substitute inputs, where feasible.

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