The prospects for a peace deal between the United States and Iran were uncertain after American forces struck targets this week, and Iran’s supreme leader and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps responded with belligerent statements.
The United States and Iran had been working toward a deal that would wind down the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas shipments that Iran has effectively blockaded.
But on Monday night, American officials said U.S. forces had struck missile launch sites in Iran and boats trying to place mines. U.S. Central Command characterized the strikes as defensive. Two U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss military matters, said the strikes came after the U.S. had observed certain actions by Iranian forces, including at missile launch sites.
On Tuesday, Iran’s foreign ministry accused the United States of violating the cease-fire agreement with the strikes. Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said Tuesday that American military bases in the Middle East were not safe, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it would respond forcefully.
Senior Iranian leaders arrived in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Monday for talks on efforts to end the war, according to two diplomats who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Iran’s lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, returned to Iran on Tuesday.
Much remains uncertain about the agreement. One of the key questions is around Iran’s nuclear program. On that issue, and others, American and Iranian officials have presented contrasting descriptions of the emerging agreement, leading to doubts about whether the deal could be finalized.
Here’s what to know.
What has the U.S. said?
Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, said Tuesday that negotiations could take a few days, with Qatar acting as the most immediate mediator. “We’ll see if we can make progress,” Mr. Rubio said. “I think it’s a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document, so it’ll take a few days.”
On Monday, President Trump said on social media that the agreement would either be “great and meaningful” or “there will be no deal,” after facing criticism from prominent Republicans that the proposal was too soft on Iran.
A senior U.S. official who declined to be named, speaking to reporters on Sunday, did not offer a timeline for how long the United States would allow for a deal on the nuclear issues.
Mr. Rubio also reiterated warnings that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened. “The straits have to be open, they’re going to be open,” he said. “What’s happening there is unlawful, it’s illegal, it’s unsustainable for the world, it’s unacceptable.”
At this stage, the United States is not offering to unfreeze any Iranian assets, but the U.S. official said that the Americans have made clear they are willing to begin that process if Iran gives up its highly enriched uranium.
In April, the United States began a blockade on Iranian ports and Iranian-linked ships globally. Mr. Trump said in a post on social media on Sunday morning that it would “remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.”
On Monday, he also called on countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia to sign on to the Abraham Accords to normalize ties with Israel as part of the initial agreement — to which they are highly unlikely to agree. If more Arab countries sign up to the accords, it could placate some Iran hawks in the Republican Party who have expressed misgivings about the potential deal.
What has Iran said?
Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Tuesday that Iran’s war with the United States, in which Tehran has repeatedly struck at American bases in the Gulf, meant U.S. military sites were no longer safe in the region.
“The nations and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases,” he wrote in a statement. “America, in addition to no longer having a safe place for aggression and military bases in the region, is moving further away from its former status day by day.”
The foreign ministry said Tuesday, “Undoubtedly, the Islamic Republic of Iran will not leave any act of mischief unanswered and will not hesitate in defending the country’s integrity.”
On Monday, Esmail Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, portrayed the emerging accord as a preliminary framework that does not go into detail on the thorniest issues.
“The focus of the negotiations is on ending the war and at this stage, there is no discussion about nuclear details,” Mr. Baghaei said in a news briefing.
On the strait, Mr. Baghaei said the potential deal did not go into detail about how to reopen the waterway and sent a mixed message on whether Iran might seek to charge some transit fees.
Three senior Iranian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to do so publicly, said on Saturday that Tehran had agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would stop the fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon, where Israel is fighting with Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group; lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iran; and release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
Parts of that contradict what the Americans have said. It was unclear whether the proposal described by Iranian officials was the same one Mr. Trump was referring to on Sunday or that the U.S. official discussed with reporters on Sunday.
What still needs to be addressed?
The potential interim agreement appears to leave some of the thorniest questions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program unresolved.
Chief among these is how Iran would dispose of its highly enriched uranium and the length of any potential moratorium on enrichment. Iran possesses a stockpile of about 970 pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The U.S. official on Sunday said that these issues would be addressed in future negotiations.
Under the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated during the Obama administration, Iran turned most of its stockpile over to Russia, an arrangement that could serve as a model again. Another possibility would involve diluting the uranium to lower enrichment levels that could not be made into a nuclear weapon.
The United States has, in previous rounds of negotiations, sought at least a 20-year moratorium on enrichment. Iran has proposed a far shorter timeline. The American official said on Sunday that the precise timeline mattered less than the mechanism by which the restrictions were enforced.
The deal under discussion now also does not address Iran’s missile stockpile, the U.S. official said. That is a critical issue to the Israelis, who are within reach of many of Iran’s ballistic missiles.
What has been the reaction?
Some Republicans and Iran hawks have denounced the potential agreement.
“It doesn’t make too much sense to me,” Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Mr. Tillis called the Iranians’ commitment to reopening the Strait of Hormuz “questionable” without a finalized peace deal. “There are a lot of things that need to be explained,” he said.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, whose country joined the U.S. attack that started the war in late February, said in a statement on Sunday evening that he discussed the potential agreement with Mr. Trump on a call on Saturday night and that they both agreed Iran could not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. He also said that Mr. Trump had affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself, including in Lebanon.
Still, Mr. Netanyahu’s statement came about 18 hours after Mr. Trump announced the unfolding deal. Analysts said the long silence reflected concerns inside Israel that this agreement could ultimately fall far short of its aims of shutting down Iran’s nuclear program and curbing its missile capabilities. Clashes between Hezbollah and Israel have strained the cease-fire with Iran since it was announced in April.
The leader of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, in a speech on Sunday, expressed hope that a cease-fire agreement between Iran and the United States would include the group, but framed any potential agreement as proof of Iran’s victory.
“Iran has managed to humiliate America,” he said.
Mr. Trump shot back at critics on social media on Sunday afternoon, calling them “losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about.”
Claire Moses and Victor Mather contributed reporting.
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