This column is the last chapter of my book, “If History Is of Any Value: Politics, Culture, and the Unimaginable Event of 2019-2022” (forthcoming in December 2022).
The book begins with columns written between May and September 2020 that traced parallels between the antebellum and Civil War periods and America’s contemporary radicalized and violent political environment. In a July 2020 column I identified seven parallels. No. 1: political and partisan polarization; No. 2: passing or marginalization of political compromisers; No. 3: rise in political extremism; No. 4: loss of confidence in government institutions; No. 5: intensified nationalism; No. 6: escalating political vitriol; and No. 7: racial violence.
In a May column, while addressing social unrest and violence in the wake of George Floyd’s killing, my historian’s intuition moved me to write “the smell of civil war is in the air.” In July, I used with much hesitation the phrase First Civil War (with “First” in quotation marks).
Closer to the 2020 elections, in September, I forecasted that “once the results are in, racial, ethnic, gender, geographical, cultural, and partisan hostilities will intensify, as they did in November 1860.” “Given Trump’s record of denouncing rigged elections and mass electoral fraud, and his persistent calls for political violence,” I continued, “it is hard to imagine the scenario of a dignified concession and exit from power. Blood will be spilled, not between two armies but in a low-intensity conflict that could last years. May my historian’s intuition fail me this time.” Two weeks later, I anticipated “greater problems than figuring out hanging chads (as in 2000), and larger, angrier mobilizations of partisans during any recount. This time, they will not be in preppy clothes. Some will be armed.”
Demise of moderates, distrust of government, political violence
How close are we to a second civil war? All of the seven factors enumerated above have actually intensified since November 2020. Political polarization has worsened since the elections and moderate Republicans have been systematically purged from party leadership, replaced by Trump loyalists who must kiss his royal ring and embrace the “big lie” to survive politically. Of the 10 Republican members of Congress who voted to impeach Trump in January 2021, Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and three others have been defeated in primary elections at the hands of Trump-endorsed candidates; Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and three others decided not to run again, and only two won their primaries. According to Ballotpedia as of Sept. 1, out of 200 Republican candidates endorsed by Trump, all but 17 had won their primaries and special elections.
Regarding confidence in government institutions, Gallup Poll surveys show that the public’s trust sank to new lows in 2022. The percentage of Americans who trust the presidency (a great deal/quite a lot) dropped from 38 to 23; confidence in the Supreme Court, which on June 24 reversed Roe v. Wade, fell from 36% to 25%; already in the basement of public trust at 12%, faith in Congress declined to 7%.
Trust in the electoral system also stands at historic lows, and the FBI’s favorability has eroded sharply in the eyes of many Republicans since the execution of a search warrant in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort on Aug. 8. Some have called for the Bureau’s defunding. Others have called for violence against its agents, and some have responded to that call.
Political violence is rampant and manifests itself in a variety of ways. The unimaginable events of Jan. 6, 2021, were in a category of their own: a coordinated military-style assault on the U.S. Capitol by several thousand individuals, including militia members from the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers. One must go back to the American Revolution and the Civil War to find uprisings or a rebellion of such magnitude.
Some acts of violence are explicitly political: for example, the June 2017, Alexandria, Virginia, shooting of House Majority Whip Steve Scalise and three others by an anti-Trump gunman, and the throwing of a Molotov cocktail into the Democratic Party headquarters of Travis County, Texas, in October 2021. And then there are acts of violence that are political because they respond to the politicization of social and cultural beliefs such as antisemitism and white supremacy. Take for example the 2018 deadly terrorist attack in the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh, or the mass shooting targeting Black shoppers at a Buffalo, New York, supermarket this spring.
Will the United States break into a second Civil War? According to a July article in Science magazine, half of Americans believe that it will happen, and soon. In the days following the raid at Mar-a-Lago, the internet glowed with right-wing calls for civil war. This Thursday, GOP Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels called on people to “be ready to get out on the streets with pitchforks and torches.” We are certainly moving in that direction.
Stay tuned for the midterm elections and the possible indictment of former President Donald Trump, which as Sen. Lindsey Graham said this week will lead to “riots in the streets.”
Discussion about this post