CARICOM In The Era Of Zero-Sum Geopolitics: Finding Its Way In A Fragmenting Global Order

The most immediate external pressures stem from intensifying great power rivalry, particularly the evolving posture of the United States.

Where Washington once balanced competition with engagement, its approach has become more narrowly transactional. Increasingly, U.S. policy emphasizes sanctions, investment scrutiny, and geopolitical pressure – especially in sectors deemed sensitive or strategic.

This shift risks eroding decades of influence built through trade, development assistance, education, and institutional partnerships. Many Caribbean governments now perceive U.S. engagement as more conditional – focused less on expanding local opportunity and more on limiting Chinese presence.

The result is not wholesale alignment with China, but rather strategic diversification. Caribbean states are responding pragmatically to what they perceive as a narrowing of options from a traditional partner.

China’s Quiet Pivot: From Mega-Projects to Market Strategy

In parallel, China is adjusting its own approach.

Rather than retreating, Beijing is recalibrating. Trade remains central to its engagement, even as large-scale state-backed financing slows. CARICOM exports to China remain relatively modest -approximately $370–450 million annually, while imports from China run into the billions, reflecting a persistent structural imbalance.

At the national level, the trend is even more pronounced. In Trinidad and Tobago, for example, China’s share of imports has risen significantly over the past decade, contributing to ongoing trade deficits.

However, the nature of Chinese involvement is evolving. Large infrastructure loans are giving way to smaller, more targeted investments, particularly in telecommunications, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure. This shift reflects both increased risk sensitivity in Beijing and broader changes in the global economic environment.

For Caribbean economies, this model may offer a better fit. Smaller-scale investments can integrate more effectively into local markets, supporting incremental productivity gains without the burden of large sovereign debt obligations.

The trade-off, however, is clear: reduced capital inflows paired with increased import dependence. Without a coherent industrial policy, the region risks deepening its role as a consumption market rather than developing into a production hub.

Oil Shock And Economic Divergence

Compounding these dynamics is renewed volatility in global energy markets.

Instability affecting key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz – through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes, has driven price fluctuations with far-reaching consequences. For major exporters like Brazil and Guyana, this presents a significant windfall.

For most CARICOM states, however, the impact is overwhelmingly negative.

As net energy importers, rising oil prices translate directly into inflation, increased transportation costs, and mounting fiscal pressure. Governments face difficult choices: absorb rising costs through subsidies or pass them on to consumers – both of which carry economic and political risks.

Given the relative inelasticity of demand for essential goods such as food and fuel, higher prices do little to reduce consumption; instead, they intensify economic hardship.

Cuba: Between Constraint And Opportunity

Few countries illustrate these overlapping pressures more clearly than Cuba. Although not a CARICOM member, it remains an important regional partner.

Decades of U.S. sanctions have constrained Cuba’s access to global finance, energy, and trade, challenges further compounded by Venezuela’s economic difficulties. Yet the current geopolitical moment may offer limited, incremental openings.

As U.S. strategic attention shifts elsewhere, enforcement of sanctions can become uneven. While the embargo remains firmly in place, there are signs of small-scale humanitarian and commercial flows reaching Cuba via third countries, suggesting a gradual testing of its practical limits.

At the same time, China’s evolving investment approach focused on targeted sectors may align with Cuba’s strengths in biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.

These developments do not signal a breakthrough, but they do point to the possibility of modest, gradual easing at the margins of Cuba’s economic isolation.

A Moment Of Strategic Fluidity

What defines the current global environment is not dominance, but uncertainty.

China is recalibrating. The United States is reprioritizing. Energy markets remain volatile. Even long-isolated actors like Cuba may be finding limited openings.

For the Caribbean, this moment presents both risk and opportunity.

Absent a deliberate and coordinated strategy, the region risks drifting into deeper dependency -importing more, producing less, and remaining exposed to external shocks. With stronger policy coordination, investment in regional production, and diversified partnerships, however, CARICOM could instead enhance its resilience.

In this context, countries like Guyana – with its growing oil sector, abundant arable land, and freshwater resources, could play a pivotal anchoring role in regional development.

Beyond Zero-Sum Geopolitics

Ideally, the Caribbean’s future would not be determined solely in Washington or Beijing. The region should not be forced into binary choices between competing powers.

In reality, geography, logistics, and deep economic ties ensure that the United States will continue to exert significant influence. Yet the global order is shifting, and relationships are evolving.

What many in the region seek is not dominance from external partners, but consistency, reliability, and mutual respect – partnerships that endure beyond political cycles and do not abruptly reverse course.

As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney noted at the World Economic Forum in Davos: “It calls for honesty about the world as it is… We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn’t mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy.”

For the Caribbean, that realism is essential.

At a time of global fragmentation, the region once again stands at a crossroads. The difference today is that it has more options – but also less margin for error.

CARICOM’s greatest strength remains what inspired its creation: a shared history, a sense of kinship, and the enduring potential of collective action. United, it is far better positioned to navigate the uncertainties ahead than divided.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Ron Cheong is a frequent political commentator and columnist whose recent work focuses on international relations, economic resilience, and Caribbean-American affairs. He is a community activist and dedicated volunteer with extensive international banking experience. Now residing in Toronto, Canada, he is a fellow of the Institute of Canadian Bankers and holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Toronto.

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