Is Beijing about to join Tehran in arming Russia? Is it already doing so? Washington appears to be undecided about the scope of military aid coming from Communist China, as well as the timing of its delivery, and that bodes ill for America’s attempt at deterring China from joining the Ukraine war in earnest.
Secretary Blinken said last week that Beijing is planning to send arms to Russia, and is already giving it dual-use material that can be used in battle. Then, President Biden contradicted him, telling ABC News on Friday, “I don’t anticipate a major initiative on the part of China providing weaponry to Russia.” If that changes, Mr. Biden added, “we would respond.”
Yet, when and how forcefully would America respond to something that is not currently anticipated? Also, is it already happening, as Mr. Blinken said, at least in the “dual-use” category? Do contradictory statements from different Washington corners send the right, forceful message?
Generally, “this sort of ambiguity works in our favor, creating doubt, which deters Beijing from taking action,” a former assistant secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs, David Stilwell, a retired Air Force general, tells the Sun. Yet, he adds, in this case “it shows a lack of resolve and will incentivize Beijing to test the administration.”
If Mr. Biden is attempting to establish deterrence on arming Russia, General Stilwell adds, “there are so many ways for Beijing to challenge this red line — as in definitions of what constitutes ‘lethal’ aid, or possible attribution of the source of the weapons. It could be delivered through third parties.”
At least publicly, Washington is far from united in assessing what if any military assistance Beijing is already supplying to Russia.
“There has been some non-lethal, dual-use type support coming from quote-unquote Chinese companies, that almost certainly was approved by the state, because there’s really no difference — but not lethal military support,” Mr. Blinken told the Atlantic on Thursday. Yet, “we also have picked up information over the last couple of months that China is now strongly considering doing that.”
The CIA director, William Burns, chimed in, telling CBS News Sunday: “We’re confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment.” However, he added, no “final decision has been made yet, and we don’t see evidence of actual shipments of lethal equipment.”
The House Foreign Relations Committee chairman, Representative Michael McCaul, told ABC Sunday that Washington has “intelligence that’s been reported,” according to which Beijing is “contemplating sending 100 drones into Russia.”
What Washington says publicly about the intelligence on Chinese military support or Russia may be spotty and at times downright conflicting, yet the aim is clear: Warn Beijing against arming Moscow and deter it from aiding and abetting in aggression against Ukraine.
“Beijing will have to make its own decisions about how it proceeds, whether it provides military assistance,” the national security adviser, Jacob Sullivan, told CNN. “But, if it goes down that road, it will come at real costs to China.”
He did not detail what cost Beijing would incur. As the Chinese and American economies, at least for now, are intertwined, it would be difficult for Washington to impose on the communist behemoth the kind of sanctions it has on Russia, Iran, or North Korea.
Chairman Xi, meanwhile, has attempted to walk a tightrope, vowing endless friendship with President Putin on the one hand while avoiding publicly expressing full support for the war. Last week China abstained in a United Nations vote demanding full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, rather than joining Moscow allies in voting against the nonbinding resolution.
Mr. Biden, meanwhile, dismissed a plan the Chinese foreign ministry proposed for ending the Ukraine war, saying President Putin “is applauding it, so how can it be any good?”
Yet, the communist country has significantly tightened its relations with Russia since the Russian invasion last February. Beijing is keeping Russia afloat economically and helping it to overcome heavy American and European sanctions.
Trade between the two countries rose by 25 percent in 2022 in comparison to the previous year, Mr. Putin said in December. It will reach $200 billion by 2024. As Europe bans oil imports from Russia, China is stepping in. It also buys much of the Russian agricultural goods that Europe has blocked.
Also, Washington warnings of arm sales aside, China exports to Russia semiconductors and microchips, defying a Western ban. Such technologies can aid the Russian military. Perhaps that was what Mr. Blinken meant by saying Beijing supplies Russia with “dual-use” material that can be used on the battlefield.
If so, why is Mr. Biden saying he does not anticipate such transfer of “weaponry”? Also, how credible is our deterrence, anyway? “The Syrian red line is an unfortunate precedent,” General Stilwell says, referring to President Obama’s failure in 2012 to follow through on a threat to that country.
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