European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, More (March 11-14)

The title races around Europe are all but a forgone conclusion, except for the battle going on in Serie A action.

This past weekend, AC Milan notched a massive victory at Napoli to take over the top spot in the Italian table.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bets

Union Berlin vs. Stuttgart

This line is too low for an incredibly solid Union Berlin squad. It’s one of the better defensive outfits in the Bundesliga, allowing only 1.28 NPxG per match. The reason for that is because the club doesn’t concede a ton of high-quality chances (29), good enough for third in the league on the season.

What’s impressive about Union Berlin isn’t a big pressing team. In fact, the side  last in the German top flight in PPDA, per understat.com.

Union Berlin plays out of a 3-5-2 or 5-3-2 formation, which gives it a lot of solidity at the back, but that also means is it’s reliant on the wingbacks getting forward to supply the attack. It shows in the numbers as well, because Union Berlin averages the second-most crosses completed into the penalty area, while Stuttgart is allows the fifth-most crosses, per fbref.com.

Defensively, Stuttgart has been a mess lately, allowing 17.6 xG and 17 big scoring chances. It’s second to last in the league in shots conceded per 90 minutes, fourth to last in xGA and third to last in penalty area entries yielded. The club stole a point the last time they met, with a goal in the 93rd minute to earn a 1-1 draw. However, Union Berlin won the xG battle by a 1.2-0.5 margin.

I have Union Berlin projected at -143, so I love the value on the club at +100 odds to grab all three points and the win. 

Pick: Union Berlin ML (+100)

Serie A Projections

Best Bets

Fiorentina vs. Bologna

Since Dusan Vlahovic left for Juventus, Fiorentina matches are averaging 2.52 total xG overall. Bologna has been one of the more low event teams in Serie A this season, as its matches are only averaging 2.35 xG overall.

However, if you look at actual goals, its matches are averaging 2.74 goals. So essentially, Bologna is overrated on offense, but underrated on defense, which is a perfect recipe to bet on some regression for both by taking the under. 

Fiorentina is actually No. 1 in the Italian top flight in shots allowed per 90 minutes, with only 9.33 conceding on average. The Bologna offense has been pretty pathetic, averaging only 0.93 npxG per game, which is 15th in the league. The club has only created 17 big scoring chances in 27 matches, so it’s going to be difficult for it to break down one of the better defenses in Italy.

Both of defenses are top four in Serie A in xG allowed per shot off set pieces, which is bad news for both offenses, who have been very reliant on scoring off of set pieces and penalties.

I only have 2.10 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the total staying under 2.5 goals at +110 odds.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+110)

La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Real Sociedad vs. Alavés

The last time these two sides met it was a pretty cagey 1-1 draw, with only 2.2 total xG created. And I’m expecting the same this time around.

The Real Sociedad offense is really not where we’ve expected it to be this season, sitting ninth in NPxG per match, 13th in shots per 90 minutes and 17th in crosses completed into the penalty area, per fbref.com.

Real Sociedad has also been in pretty poor form since the start of the year, averaging only 1.17 xG per match. So, even though it’s facing one of the worst defenses in La Liga, it’s not a certainty they’ll score multiple times.

Alavés is a horrific offensive team. The club is bottom three in every single offensive metric, including averaging 0.8 NPxG per match. In fact, it has only created more than one xG three times in its last 12 matches.

So, for clubs whose games are averaging less than 2.40 total xG, this is a good spot to back the total staying under the number.

That said, I only have 1.97 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the total under 2.5 goals at -135 odds.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135)

Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

Metz vs. Lens

Metz is far and away the worst offensive team, not just in France, but in Europe’s top-five leagues. The side only averages 0.77 NPxG per match, 9.33 shots per 90 minutes and 5.96 box entries per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Its defense isn’t much better, as it allows 1.38 NPxG per game and has conceded 41 big scoring chances, which is the most in French top flight. That showed the last time these teams met, with Lens walking away with a 4-1 win and creating two big scoring chances in the process.

Even though it’s in the best of form, Lens still grades out as a top-five team in France analytically and it’s due for some positive regression. Over its 10 matches, Lens has a +3.2 xGDiff, but a -2 actual goal differential.

I have visiting Lens projected at -125, so I like the value on the club at +100 odds on the moneyline and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Lens ML (+100)