Noche UFC Betting Picks: Jean Silva, Tommy McMillen and More

The UFC’s Mexican Independence Day weekend tradition is back again. For the fourth year in a row, the Octagon will present a special card celebrating Mexican fighting heritage – and for the second straight year, this UFC Fight Night is combined with a major boxing event. Noche UFC 4 goes down at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

The main event will feature a featherweight matchup between ranked contender Jean Silva and Jose Delgado.

Silva is 17-3 in MMA, including a 6-1 UFC record. His sole loss in the UFC came at last year’s Noche UFC event, getting stopped by Diego Lopes. Silva bounced back from that loss at UFC 324, defeating Arnold Allen.

Delago gets this major opportunity by filling in for the originally scheduled Yair Rodriguez. Delgado is 4-1 in the UFC, with his sole loss coming against Nathaniel Wood. Delgado comes into this bout off a win over Austin Bashi a couple of months ago.

The co-main event will be a key flyweight matchup between former champion Brandon Moreno and Joseph Morales. Moreno is just 2-4 since dropping the title to Alexandre Pantoja, and he enters off a shocking loss to Lone’er Kavanagh at UFC Mexico City in February. Morales submitted Alibi Idiris at UFC 319 to become The Ultimate Fighter season 33 winner, and he followed that with a win over Matt Schnell in November.

The rest of the main card features Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki, Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso, Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes, and David Martinez vs. Dan Ige.

JEAN SILVA VS JOSE DELGADO

We really shouldn’t be counting Delgado out of this fight so easily; after all, it’s been the Year of the Underdogs in the UFC. And Delgado isn’t a slouch, as he’s an MMA Lab product who has shown a willingness to mix it up and exchange. And with the height and reach advantage here, he should be able to fight smartly, keeping his distance and making Silva work.

That said, it’s tough to go against Silva. He’s got more big-fight experience, the clearly better resume, and we’ve seen just how dangerous and explosive he is. If Delgado tries for a firefight here, he will pay for it. Silva is going to look to pressure and overwhelm, and it might be tough for Delgado to find the finish, let alone survive 25 minutes against that kind of pacing.

BET: Silva to win AND UNDER 2.5 rounds (BetMGM SGP: +145)

TOMMY MCMILLEN VS MARWAN RAHIKI

Mark this bout down, fight fans – this one could end up being Fight of the Night. It’s two undefeated prospects who are looking to throw down and make a statement, especially with some bad blood between the pair. Both men are also coming in with a pair of finishes in their first two Octagon bouts since impressing in their own Dana White’s Contender Series appearances.

Both men are great strikers with finishing ability, but the key factor in this one is McMillen’s big frame for 145. That size factor is going to allow McMillen to land his shots from range, and he’s already shown how he can overwhelm his opponents with volume. Furthermore, he can mix in his wrestling at any point. Rahiki’s aggression needs to be used to get inside on McMillen and not make this a kickboxing matchup. If he can close the distance on McMillen and attack the body, Rahiki can pull this off.

BET: Fight to end via KO/TKO/DQ (BetMGM: -115)

YOUSRI BELGAROUI VS DJORDEN SANTOS

It’s time for respect to be placed on Belgaroui’s name. He’s a top kickboxer from GLORY, one who has fought (and defeated) Alex Pereira. He’s got great size and technical striking that always makes him a dangerous fight. He may not have early finishes on his plate in the UFC, but third-round finishes are finishes nonetheless.

Belgaroui’s power from kickboxing hasn’t gone away. And for a fighter like Santos, who is 1-2 in the UFC entering this fight, he’s going to need to get inside and make this a physical slugest, risky as that can be. Belgaroui can afford to fight this from a distance with being the significantly bigger fighter, and that tips the fight in his favor even more.

BET: Belgaroui via KO/TKO/DQ (DraftKings: -125)