“We have nowhere left to retreat” – Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation. These words were meant for the Russian people, and not as a plea to the rest of the world. Putin is invoking the patriotic spirit of Russians, and framing the coming war as an act of self-defence (which it might be) so that he has those same people behind him for the big move. The move he has dreamed of since he witnessed the fall of the Soviet Union. This is not just about Donetsk or Lugansk Republics, or even Ukraine. This is about recreating the Russia of old.
Putin has named several factors as strategic imperatives for Russia. A key one is having NATO nations on his borders. He points to Ukraine as a possible NATO member, but there are three countries on his eastern flank, within hours of Moscow, that are NATO members already: Estonia (population 1.3 million); Latvia (population 1.9 million); and Lithuania (population 2.7 million). Collectively known as the Baltic States, they give NATO a staging ground in behind Russia’s western border, and are therefore problematic for Moscow. Those countries have, respectively, the following NATO troops stationed in them: 800; 1200; and 1200. Currently they represent an irritant at most, but their potential to become much more for NATO is the danger for Russia.
Most analysts are looking at Russia’s position as solely focused on Ukraine, but this would be a foolish miscalculation. Firstly, Russia needs to send a very strong message to countries like Finland, Sweden, Georgia and others that it is prepared to destroy countries that imperil its strategic stability. A minor shuffle into eastern Ukraine would have no such affect, and might in fact do the opposite. Russia knows, like anyone knows, that if there is going to be a big cost then you might as well go for the gusto. The “gusto” in this case is not just eastern Ukraine, not just Ukraine, but the Baltic states and likely Moldova – or at least parts of it. The following map shows that such a move gives Russia the smallest western border to defend amongst all the options. (blue line)
Essentially the new western border of Russia will extend from Kaliningrad in the north to the Pro-Russian Transnistria in the south. It will reduce the number of countries accessing the Black Sea to Russia, Turkey, Romania and Hungary. Romania and Hungary are NATO countries, but now they will have Russian divisions stationed at their border, and they do remember when they were occupied, so their inclination to poke the bear will likely be zero. That leaves Turkey, also a NATO member, but a member whose western based economy is in freefall and whose currency is devaluating on a daily basis – leaving it vulnerable to China and Russia.
Russia has also been moving large forces from the far east, near China, to their western border. Those troops have not yet arrived. This indicates that Russia intends on taking very serious military action, decisive military action, and it also indicates Russia is very comfortable leaving China with a less guarded border.
That brings us to Eurasia. Russia and China have been planning a separate economic system from the West for decades. They have been stockpiling gold as their system will be a gold-backed trade/currency system. They have signed strategic economic and arms agreements. They are in a sense creating anew world order that intends to completely sideline the West economically, and if necessary militarily. The United States has fed this ambition by sanctioning Russia to the point where Russia, and importantly its citizens, have gotten used to being apart from Western goods and services. It is, therefore, almost amusing that the United States is threating Russia with expulsion from the SWIFT economic settlement system. Intentionally, or unintentionally, the US is playing right into Russia hands, and therefore China’s. The West’s reaction to a Russian invasion of the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Moldova will be the moment both China and Russia have been waiting for to initiate their Eurasian project, and they can say they had no choice, because the US threw them out of SWIFT. Things to come.
In the mean time look for a one fell swoop Russian assault, due to an Ukrainian assault in the Donbass, likely during the Beijing Olympics. Ukraine has been banging the pot internationally that Russia has 100,000 troops near its border, but what Ukraine has been reticent to say is that half the Ukrainian military is now on the the borders of the Donbass region. The danger for Ukraine is that half its army is in very real danger of being enveloped by Russian forces almost as soon as hostilities start. The following map shows the general area that one half of Ukraine’s troops are concentrated in (blue circle), and the likely approaches of Russian, and possibly Belorussian troops. It’s quite easy to see how quickly they will be isolated, or as the Russians like to call it: “a caldron”. A second flanking will be to isolate Kiev from the West and place the entire country in a free fall within days of an invasion.
It should not be forgotten that Russia stated, just months ago, that a Ukrainian military intervention in the Donbass would be the end of Ukraine as a state.
We should find out if this is the big Eurasian move or not within the next month or so, but all signs point to it. Keep in mind that both China, Russia, and even North Korea are ahead of the West in developing strategically decisive hyper-sonic missiles. Russia and China have also now had the time to modernize their militaries. In a sense they are ready to go, and their hypersonic advantage may be short lived. It will be in that calculus that the fate of the world as we know it will rest.
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