WASHINGTON — In an unprecedented move, A Russian government-owned satellite spent weeks stalking an ICEYE satellite widely believed to be providing synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to Ukraine — coming as close as 500 meters (about a third of a mile), according to space watching firm LeoLabs.
In a press release today, LeoLabs said Russia’s Cosmos 2612 “conducted a deliberate series of maneuvers toward ICEYE-X36” between Oct. 15-19 that involved “continued maneuvering around ICEYE-X36, shifting between positions ahead of and behind the commercial satellite.”
While Russia’s Cosmos birds have previously been observed closely following other Western satellites, Adam Marsh, LeoLabs vice president for technical solutions, told Breaking Defense that this was a first-of-its-kind rendezvous and proximity operation (RPO).
“This is the most advanced and potentially dangerous uncooperative RPO we’ve observed,” he said.
Victoria Samson, chief director of Space Security and Stability for Secure World Foundation, agreed.
“What is new is that I don’t think that there has ever been an uncoordinated RPO that was close,” she told Breaking Defense. “Also, in these earlier cases, the satellite that was being approached was a USG satellite; obviously in this case, it was a commercial satellite.”
LeoLabs’ analysis concluded that Cosmos 2612 “demonstrated a sequence of capabilities that could be used to inspect, characterize, shadow, or potentially interfere with another spacecraft. The observed tactics included:
- Departing on a controlled trajectory
- Deliberately matching the orbital plane of another satellite
- Closing from long range in a controlled manner
- Adjusting speed and altitude to manage relative motion
- Repositioning ahead of and behind the target
- Remaining close rather than conducting a simple flyby
- Making repeated small maneuvers while in proximity.”
According to a blog post by longtime space watcher Marco Langbroek, the Cosmos 2612 ― which was launched in April ― began its “worrisome” stalking mission Sept. 30 and subsequently undertook a series of maneuvers “clearly designed” to catch up to the ICEYE satellite.
Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a web post on Friday that Cosmos 2612’s maneuvers should be viewed as a likely threat, given that the ICEYE satellite “supports Ukraine” in its effort to repel Russia’s 2022 invasion.
“Given Russia’s history of testing on-orbit weapons, policymakers should assume Cosmos 2612 could take an action that threatens the commercial satellite,” he wrote. “But the risk extends beyond just one satellite. A Russian counterspace activity in the vicinity of Western satellites should be assessed within the context of aggressive Russian gray zone activities targeting U.S. and European interests.”
ICEYE, headquartered in Finland, first announced an agreement with Ukraine to provide SAR imagery via a dedicated satellite in 2022, but has never publicly identified which specific satellite was provided.
Samson noted that although ICEYE-X36 may be collecting data used by Ukraine, although that has not been publicly confirmed. The spacecraft is operated by it’s US arm, ICEYE US, and was launched from the United States in 2024. That makes ICEYE-X36 a US satellite — or at least one for which the United States is the launching state, she explained.
“Russia and the US aren’t at war with each other, knock wood, but this does make me wonder why the USG [US government] has been silent on this matter,” she added.
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