We start Sunday Night Football with a matchup between two of the most electric teams in the NFL. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will travel to take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. This is the type of matchup that we could see later on in the AFC Championship game.
Truthfully, there’s one major factor as to why I’m leaning one way or the other in this game: the location.
Both of these teams were drastically better at home last season. The Bills were 8-0 at home compared to 5-4 on the road. They were also 2-0 at home in the postseason before losing a road matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Ravens posted a 7-2 record in Baltimore last season. They were only 6-4 on the road, including a loss to the Bills in the playoffs.
These records are baseline numbers that don’t truly give us a ton of information. The predictive metrics show us more of the same about each team’s home/road splits.
Buffalo ranked second in the NFL in points per play (0.500) last season. That number jumped to 0.545 at home. This was the best in the NFL by a wide margin, and they were one of only two teams to average over 0.500 points per play at home in 2024.
More importantly than an already dominant offense is their defensive splits. Buffalo ranked only 14th in the NFL in points per play (0.356) allowed in 2024. That number dropped to only 0.299 at home, which ranked seventh in the league.
The Ravens are in the same boat as the Bills, which adds to the importance of where this game will be played. Baltimore ranked third in points per play (0.482) in 2024. That number dipped to 0.471 on the road. They also allowed 0.345 points per play overall, but that number increased to 0.368 on the road.
The key here is the difference between the numbers. The Bills are scoring 0.045 more points per play at home, while the Ravens are scoring 0.011 fewer points per play. Buffalo is also giving up 0.057 fewer points per play in their home stadium compared to Baltimore giving up 0.023 more points per play away from home.
The overall difference is that Buffalo is gaining 0.102 points per play at home, while Baltimore is losing 0.034. It’s a drastic obstacle to overcome for any team.
We’re getting one of the best teams in the NFL as a home underdog, and the odds are too good to pass up.
Where to Bet: Buffalo Bills moneyline | +105 at ESPN Bet
Discussion about this post