Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded more than 28% from its February low below $60,000, and a mix of technical, liquidity, and on-chain signals suggests the recovery may still have room to run.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin is holding a support zone that has previously triggered 8%–10% rebounds.
- Binance stablecoin inflows are rising, boosting fresh deployable liquidity for crypto markets.
BTC hits support with 8%–10% rebound history
Since early April, Bitcoin has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with price consistently respecting both rising support and resistance trend lines.
Each test of the lower boundary has triggered 8%–10% rebounds, often driving BTC back toward, or even beyond, the upper trend line. The current setup mirrors those prior cycles.
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC is now consolidating near the channel’s lower support zone around $76,800–$77,500, which also coincides with the 20-period (green) and 50-period EMAs (red) on the four-hour chart, a key dynamic support level in ongoing uptrends.
A rebound from this range increase the odds of BTC’s price hitting the upper boundary near $82,700, up by roughly 7.70% from current prices. This level coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
Related: Bitcoin shorts create $1.4B liquidation risk: Is a price squeeze to $80K next?
Conversely, a breakdown risks BTC price dropping toward $73,600, a level aligning with the 0.786 Fib line and the 200-4H EMA (blue).
Binance’s stablecoin inflows boost BTC rally potential
Liquidity conditions are also rising, which improves the technical setup.
Binance has recorded nearly $6 billion in stablecoin inflows across March and April, including $3.5 billion in April alone, marking a sharp reversal from the previous $7.6 billion in net outflows, data from CryptoQuant shows.
Binance monthly stablecoin netflow. Source: CryptoQuant
This is important for the bulls because stablecoin inflows represent deployable capital. In other words, liquidity is returning to exchanges, suggesting traders are preparing to re-enter risk despite US–Iran tensions and elevated oil prices.
Bitcoin MVRV fractal hints at rally above $92,000
Bitcoin’s latest rebound has pushed its price back above the MVRV -0.5 standard deviation band (green) at around $72,750. This band has often acted as support and resistance across previous market cycles.
The MVRV bands measure how far Bitcoin’s spot price has moved from investors’ aggregate on-chain cost basis.
BTC MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands vs. price. Source: Glassnode
When BTC climbs back above a lower deviation band, the market is no longer trading at a deep discount to its realized value, often opening room for a move toward the next band.
A similar reclamation of the green band as support in past downturns, including the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, preceded short-term rallies toward the mean band (yellow), as shown below.
BTC MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands vs. price. Source: Glassnode
That puts Bitcoin’s next potential upside target near $94,500 if history repeats.
The signal does not confirm a new bull market, but it does strengthen the case for a bear-market relief rally. On-chain analyst Willy Woo said Bitcoin is still forming a bottom, with the $65,000 level acting as a key floor.
A decisive break above the $79,000 cost basis of recent investors is needed to strengthen the recovery, said Woo, with the next six weeks likely to determine whether the move can evolve into a sustained trend reversal.
The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k).
I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt.
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