There’s a little less than three weeks to go in the regular season. But somebody in Major League Baseball could qualify for a playoff spot this week.
Two somebodies: the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League and the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League. Fun? Depends. But first, some math.
The Brewers, with a functional magic number of four, can clinch a playoff spot as soon as Wednesday. The Rays, whose magic number is five — functional, dysfunctional, we want the functional, give us the functional — can clinch a spot as soon as Thursday.
Both of these teams also lead their respective divisions, but neither is likely to clinch this week.
By the way, you might be wondering: What the heck is a “functional magic number”? And how does it differ from a plain, old magic number?
The easiest answer is “just go with it.” But for you sticklers, because of how the remaining regular-season schedule shakes out among the Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, Milwaukee’s actual magic number to clinch a playoff spot is four, not six as it might appear after doing the typical magic number math.
As most MLB fans need to be reminded annually, the magic number is calculated like this:
Take the leading team’s games remaining. The Brewers have 17 games remaining. Add 1. Just do it. That makes 18.
(Within these parentheses, take the number of losses by the pursuing team and subtract the losses by the leading team. The Padres and D-backs have 68 losses apiece, and the Brewers have 56 losses. That’s 68-56=12.)
Subtract 12 from 18 (remember the 18 from before the parentheses?) and you get six.
But it’s not six, it’s four, because Arizona and San Diego play each other in a three-game series to wrap up the regular season. This guarantees the Brewers at least two additional losses by one of their opponents in the clinching formula. Subtract those two inevitable losses from the Brewers non-functional magic number of six and you get a functional magic number of four. Now that’s a magical conjunction of function. The wonders of math, or maybe it’s physics. There seems to be a wormhole involved.
The D-backs/Padres series was already fixing to be compelling and rich because the last playoff spot figured to be on the line. But it’s even more interesting because of… math. Raise your hand if you love math. Use all of your fingers, please.
What about ties? Tiebreakers could matter, but they’re dwarfed by Arizona and San Diego having to play each other at the end of the season.
Nobody else can clinch a spot before next week. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a magic number of seven to clinch a spot. The Atlanta Braves, eight. The New York Yankees, nine.
Here’s where a few notable others stand:
Coming off three straight 100-plus loss seasons in the AL Central, the Chicago White Sox lead the Cleveland Guardians by four games in the loss column. But they also have three games at Cleveland next week, so there’s time for chaos. Not to mention Cleveland’s slim lead on the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers for the last AL playoff spot.
And if they don’t fizzle, the Sox also have a good chance for a first-round bye because they lead the Houston Astros by three games in the loss column. The Astros lead the AL West by two games in the loss column over the Rangers.
The Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers aren’t cooked, but they can’t lose more than three or four games the rest of the way, or else they are.
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