Victoria’s crime rate drops for first time in four years, despite sharp rise in shoplifting, bail breaches

Bombshell statistics have revealed Victoria’s crime rate has dropped for the first time since 2022 – despite recording a surge in shoplifting and bail breach offences.

The Crime Statistic Agency (CSA) released the state’s latest crime data on Thursday, revealing the rate of recorded offences fell 3.8 per cent to 8680 per 100,000 Victorians in the 12 months to June 30.

The number of recorded offences decreased 2.1 per cent to 624,624 overall.

CSA chief statistician Fiona Dowsley said despite an increase in shoplifting offences, property crime was down overall, driven by decreases in burglary and other theft offences.

“Shoplifting offences have increased 2.7 per cent in the last 12 months, with grocery items showing the largest increase amongst items taken,” she said.

CSA found a decrease in thefts saw the victimisation rate fall by 7.6 per cent to 3665 reports per 100,000 Victorians.

Person-related victim reports decreased 6 per cent to 263,746.

The figures emerge during a crucial time for the incumbent Labor state government, amid criticism of how crime – especially youth crime – is handled across the state.

Premier Ben Carroll has hailed the statistics as a sign crime is going in a “new direction”, despite acknowledging crime was still “too high” and there was more work to do.

“We are delivering more police, tougher laws, stronger powers and serious consequences,” he said.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has seized on the issue in the leadup to the November state election, pledging to put “genuine” Adult Crime, Adult Time laws in place, a one-strike bail rule for serious offences uplifted to the County Court, and extending breach of bail laws to youth offenders by “removing the existing youth exemption”, among other measures.

Breaches of orders and bail conditions had the highest increase, which jumped from 5473 to 17,250 offences in the last 12 months, following the introduction of new bail reforms last year.

Alleged offender incidents also rose 6.6 per cent to 195,572, where police linked one or more offences to a person or organisation.

Theft-related incidents increased by 4.3 per cent to 44,544 alleged offender incidents, with shoplifting increasing by 9.3 per cent to 21,306 alleged offender incidents.