By Darsh Khusial & Kenrick Hunte
News Americas, NY, NY, Sat. Sept. 19, 2026: Guyana oil revenues are again coming into question. Over the past week, several commentators have said the spot price of Brent crude has been between US$120 and US$150 per barrel. This contrasts with Brent crude futures, which have been around US$105 per barrel. In its First Half Report for 2026, the Bank of Guyana (BoG) stated that the average price received for Guyana’s oil during the first six months of the year was US$92.50 per barrel (see Section 2.10). However, the BOG projects that the average price for the entire year will be only US$86 per barrel (see Section 2.11 on page 6).
That projection is difficult to reconcile with oil prices so far this year. Since the U.S.-led war against Iran began at the end of February, Brent crude averaged approximately US$98 per barrel from March through the end of August. Perhaps the BoG’s US$86 projection can be seen as a forecast that ultimately proved incorrect. After all, predicting future oil prices may fall outside its circle of competence.
However, the oil-price projection is not the most concerning figure in the BoG’s 2026 First Half Report. There are potentially more serious issues when one attempts to reconcile its figures with Guyana’s actual oil production.
Section 15.6 of the Stabroek Block Petroleum Agreement states: “The Contractor shall pay, at the Government’s election either in cash based on the value of the relevant Petroleum as calculated pursuant to Article 13 or in kind, a royalty of two percent (2%) of all Petroleum produced and sold … Cash payment shall be due quarterly, thirty (30) days following the end of each calendar quarter.”
Since the government has been receiving the royalty in cash, as reflected in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) reports, we examined the quarterly royalty payments reported this year. Under Section 15.6, royalty payments relating to the first half of 2026 should be reflected in the April and July NRF statements.
The royalties reported in those two statements total approximately US$218.7 million, or about US$219 million. Given that the royalty rate is 2% and the BoG reports an average oil price of US$92.50 per barrel, US$219 million in royalties would imply total oil production of approximately 118 million barrels:
(US$219 million ÷ 2%) ÷ US$92.50 = approximately 118 million barrels
However, when this figure is compared with the production data published by the Government at petroleum.gov.gy, total production for the first six months of 2026 is approximately 163 million barrels. A rough calculation using production of about 900,000 barrels per day for 180 days produces approximately the same result.
That leaves a difference of roughly 45 million barrels. Surely 45 million barrels cannot be explained by petroleum used for fuel or transportation in petroleum operations.
If Guyana should have received 14.5% of the value of those 45 million barrels—representing a 12.5% profit-oil share plus the 2% royalty—the potential difference is approximately: 45 million barrels × US$92.50 × 14.5% = US$604 million
This raises an important question: Did Guyana forgo approximately US$604 million in oil revenues during the first half of 2026, or is there another explanation for the apparent discrepancy? The BoG’s projection that oil will average US$86 per barrel for the entire year may ultimately prove as misguided as it presently appears, particularly when September Brent prices are averaging approximately US$110 per barrel. But that involves predicting the future.
The approximately US$604 million discrepancy is different. It relates to oil that was already produced during the first half of 2026. That is the figure that requires an explanation.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Darsh Khusial is an executive of the Oil and Gas Governance Network (OGGN) Other executive members include Kenrick Hunte, Joe Persaud and Mike Persaud.
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