Which countries are the climate heroes and villains this year?

Governments turning talk into walk could avoid 1C of heating, a level representing large-scale damage to human health and economies.

Global policies have the planet on track for 2.8C heating, new analysis concluded. But if met, governments’ emissions-cutting promises would achieve one of the big goals of the Paris Agreement – to limit warming to under 2C.

Yet there’s not enough green legislation, concludes a new report from the UN Environment Programme, released a week before countries meet in Egypt to discuss the state of global action.

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Since the Paris accord was adopted in 2015, the 197 signatory countries have made emissions-slashing targets for 2030. Many have set deadlines to achieve net-zero emissions. If all these promises were fully achieved, global temperatures would stabilise at 1.8C, the new report concluded.

This year, countries – including the US – passed major climate legislation. In contrast, Brazil and Mexico watered down their 2030 promises.

With the average global temperature 1.1C hotter than pre-industrial times, the world is already experiencing more powerful heatwaves and storms. Scientists have warned that above 1.5C, climate impacts will leap.

The Paris Agreement outlines two targets: temperatures should be kept “well below 2C” but efforts should be made to achieve 1.5C. In recent years, climate leaders have treated 1.5C as the more important goal, recognising the losses to food production, homes, livelihoods and even of Pacific nations that would happen between 1.5C and 2C.

But even if every climate promise is implemented perfectly, 1.5C is not within the world’s reach, according to Friday’s report.

There is good news: the report suggests the very worst scenarios – 4C or 5C hotter by 2100 – are increasingly implausible.

Collective government policies as they stand today would result in temperatures between 1.9C and 3.3C hotter in 2100, most likely 2.8C.

Action from here matters

After making pledges under the Paris Agreement (known as Nationally Determined Contributions) to cut emissions by 2030, governments can introduce policies to meet these commitments – or as New Zealand plans to, they can mainly rely on buying carbon reductions from other countries.

If all pledges are fully achieved, temperatures by 2100 would be 2.4C above the pre-fossil fuel era.

Russia and Turkey are expected to outperform their lax pledges, the report noted, so this estimate might be a touch high.

New Zealand and other nations have also made net-zero commitments on top of their 2030 promises. Our Government wants to achieve this by 2050, as does Canada, the UK and the US. China plans to be carbon-neutral by 2060.

The report warns emissions in many countries – particularly China, India, Russia and Turkey – are headed in the wrong direction. But if governments manage to meet all their net-zero targets, this would hold warming to 1.8C, the report concluded.

Right direction

There has been significant progress since the last report. India announced a new Paris pledge and a net-zero goal and Indonesia promised to phase out coal.

Altogether, these developments could save 0.4C of warming. Last year, the implementation of all Paris pledges and net-zero targets would have only limited warming to 2.2C.

The report is released annually in the run-up to the Conference of the Parties (or COP), the annual UN climate summit. All countries were officially urged to submit a more ambitious 2030 target before the 27th COP meeting. The EU appears set to strengthen its goal, though this may not be announced before the summit, hosted by Egypt.

Other countries may announce updates at the event. Significantly tougher pledges from large emitters – namely China, the US and Russia – could shift the temperature dial.

Here’s the report’s naughty and nice list this year.

The leaders

United States. By passing the Inflation Reduction Act (essentially green energy legislation), the world’s largest economy will prevent 1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere before 2030. This was one of the biggest gains this year, according to the report. The bill compliments other investments into EVs and carbon capture, plus new efficiency standards for cars.

European Union. The 27-country bloc pledged to slash emissions by at least 55% by 2030 – and has put plans in place to back this up, such as big investment into buildings and sustainable products. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the members voted to invest €210 billion mostly in clean energy and industry, to speed up the transition.

India. The world’s second-largest country updated its Paris pledge, promised to be net-zero by 2070 and vowed to invest in EVs, solar panels and cleaner cooking. India is planning to open domestic carbon markets (similar to Aotearoa’s Emissions Trading Scheme).

Indonesia. The country has promised to end deforestation. It’s also vowed to build no new fossil-fuelled power plants, and invest heavily in renewable generation.

Brazil. This entry may surprise you, but the report highlighted the South American country’s vow to end deforestation in 2028 and introduction of a national system to meet its 2030 climate goals. However, there’s a big but – see below.

China. The world’s largest emitter has invested heavily in solar and wind generation. It also strengthened its Paris accord target late last year, promising to peak emissions before or by 2030, and created a plan to meet that goal. Again – see below.

The laggards

Russia. Compared to others, the country has set itself some fairly easy targets: 10% of all cars should be EVs, and total transport emissions should be 1.2% lower by the end of the decade. Russia submitted a 2030 Paris pledge set so high, the report expects its emissions to be well under its target. The report doesn’t say much about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though it notes the aggression has caused great suffering and has led “many governments seek to secure alternatives to Russian oil and gas – in some cases, coal use is on the rise”.

China. The drought-hit country greatly increased its coal production and generation this year, despite pledges to end its reliance on the highest-emitting fossil fuel.

Brazil. When it updated its Paris pledge, Brazil changed to a more favourable reference year – meaning it’s set itself an easier goal. That move cancelled out the extra ambition announced by Japan.

Mexico. Like Brazil, the North American country decreased its ambition, though it won’t make as much difference.

Turkey. Like Russia, the country has set itself an unambitious Paris pledge that it should easily achieve.

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