WNBA Best Bets September 2nd: Liberty vs. Valkyries, Fever vs. Mercury Picks

With the WNBA regular season concluding this month, the playoff race is intensifying every game — making it a perfect time to bet on the league.

Here are Deadspin’s WNBA betting picks for Tuesday, Sept. 2.

New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries

Spread: Liberty -6 (-110) | Valkyries +6 (-110)
Moneyline: Liberty -265 | Valkyries +210
Total: 156 (-110)

The Valkyries have been streaky in the past month, rattling off a four-game winning streak followed by a three-game skid. They are currently trending upward, though, with three consecutive wins that have pushed them into the sixth seed and two and a half games ahead of the ninth-place Los Angeles Sparks.

Golden State is scrappy and remains an unexpected playoff contender, though its recent success is somewhat misleading. Two of its three wins came against non-playoff teams (Dallas Wings and Washington Mystics), while the third was over the banged-up Indiana Fever. Its three-game slide came against postseason locks.

New York is one of those playoff-caliber squads. The Liberty sit two and a half games ahead of Golden State but are just 3-5 in their last eight contests. Expect the Liberty to win, but this should be a tight matchup.

Best Bet: Valkyries +6 (-110, FanDuel)
Golden State is 24-14-1 against the spread this season. With postseason seeding on the line, the Valkyries should push New York harder than expected.

Prop Pick: Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 Points (-113)
Ionescu has hovered around this number in recent weeks, but her efficiency has been abysmal. Since Aug. 5, she’s averaging 13.8 points while shooting 33.9% from the field and 25.9% from 3-point range.

Golden State’s stingy defense (76.8 points allowed per game, fewest in the WNBA) should continue to frustrate her.

Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury

Spread: Fever +6.5 (-112) | Mercury -6.5 (-108)
Moneyline: Fever +210 | Mercury -265
Total: 165 (-108/-112)

The Fever have managed to stay afloat despite losing Caitlin Clark and suffering injuries to Aari McDonald, Sydney Colson and Sophie Cunningham. Still, they have slipped to the eighth and final playoff seed.

Indiana is 6-7 since Aug. 1, while Phoenix is 9-4 over that span. The Mercury have also won four straight, including victories over Golden State, Los Angeles and New York.

The Fever edged Phoenix 107-101 in their July 30 meeting, but McDonald, Cunningham and Colson combined for 47 points in that win. In the Aug. 7 rematch, Alyssa Thomas powered the Mercury with a triple-double in a 95-60 blowout victory. Phoenix should again take advantage of Indiana’s depleted roster.

Best Bet: Under 165 Total Points (-112, FanDuel)
Indiana’s offense has cooled off after a hot August, failing to reach 80 points in each of its last two games. Phoenix ranks fourth in defense and should further suppress the Fever, while its offense is average, creating conditions for a low-scoring game.

Prop Pick: Kelsey Mitchell Under 20.5 Points (-132)
Mitchell has been limited to 14 and 12 points in her last two outings. In two previous games against Phoenix, she totaled just 20 points. Expect the Mercury defense to continue locking her down.