Politico Magazine published a Beto O’Rourke profile this morning. The headline sort of hints at the possibility that this particular cottage industry for the media could be coming to an end soon: “Beto O’Rourke Is Making His Last Stand in Texas.” The story itself doesn’t offer much hope that Beto is heading for anything but another disappointment. He’s literally praying for a miracle.
In a cavernous, modern sanctuary at Greater Mt. Zion Church, the Rev. Gaylon Clark introduced Beto O’Rourke to his congregation one recent Sunday as “the next governor of the state of Texas.” Then he raised his hand and, over the strains of a keyboard, prayed for “victory in the name of Jesus.”
In the sanctuary, the churchgoers said, “Amen.” In the lobby, they lined up for pictures with the one-time Democratic sensation now lagging in the polls.
“With God and faith and him being here today,” one of the congregants told me, “you should see a change in his numbers by next week.”…
But even here in Democratic-heavy Austin — even to many of O’Rourke’s supporters — it is looking more and more like it may not add up to enough.
Real Clear Politics currently has Gov. Abbott up by an average of 8.6 points. Even if Abbott’s actual lead is half that, Beto doesn’t have much hope of winning this thing. Later in the story, a major Democratic donor admitted it was a little hard to get excited about “round 3” of the Beto show.
“You only have a certain amount of time to be the ‘It’ guy or ‘It’ girl or whatever it is, and then people start chipping away,” one major Democratic donor in the state told me. “Now he’s coming back for Round 3, and it’s like, can you really get that excited?”
He said, “Democrats are excited to get rid of Abbott, but the fact is there are more Republicans in the state still.”
Yes, there are more Republicans. This point keeps being brought up. By this donor. By a college student who attends a Beto event. By someone at the church he visited Sunday. What is it these Democrats are really expecting in a state where they know they remain outnumbered?
And that leads to the conclusion of the piece which suggests, absent some sort of divine intervention in this race, there probably won’t be another Beto campaign in the future.
This may be O’Rourke’s last chance. With his near-universal name recognition and an army of small donors, O’Rourke had widely been viewed in Texas as the Democrats’ best hope of defeating Abbott, and he had been lobbied heavily by Texas Democrats to get into the race. But given the conservative bent of the state, it was always going to be a longshot.
Still, if O’Rourke falls short, he will be a three-time loser — a difficult, if not impossible, brand to overcome.
Dave Carney, the Republican strategist who advises Abbott, said, “If he loses again, that’s it.”
He lost the 2018 campaign for Senate. He lost the 2020 campaign for president. He’s losing the 2022 campaign for governor. Three strikes and you’re out. And sadly that also means no more glowing Beto profiles at major media outlets. They’ll have to find a new longshot to glom onto.
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