A new poll by Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union shows levels of support bedding in for the parties, with the exception of the Greens, who jump by 2.3 percentage points from a dismal showing last month to 9.7%. The combined support for National, up 0.1 points to 35.7% and Act, unchanged on 12.7%, would translate to 62 parliamentary seats (46 for National and 16 for Act), enough to assemble a majority of the 120-member parliament.
Labour drops 0.9 points to 32.9%. Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2 points to 3.5% and NZ First falls by a point to 1.6%. Among the other small parties, the New Conservatives registered 1.3%, Democracy NZ 0.9%, and TOP 0.8%.
The average across the latest versions of the various polls, as above, would create what looks like a dead heat. National’s 45 and Act’s 15 seats would bring them a total of 60, the same combined allocation for Labour (43), the Greens (12) and TPM (5, assuming they won at least one electorate).
When it comes to assessments of the party leaders, the gap is narrowing in the TPU/Curial poll, though Chris Hipkins remains well in front. The prime minister falls three points to +19% on net favourability, with Christopher Luxon up five points but still just below the zero line, on -2%. David Seymour is up seven points to -4%.
The poll was conducted from May 31 to June 6.
