The United Nations projects that sub-Saharan Africa will account for more than half of the growth of the world’s population between 2022 and 2050.
That means that by 2050, one out of every four people on Earth, and more than a third of the world’s young people (between the ages of 15 and 24), are expected to be African. Remarkably, during the same period, Nigeria is expected to surpass the US as the world’s third-most-populous country.
To be sure, Africa’s projected shift in population, and the potential demographic dividend, in which a higher proportion of the population contributes to domestic production, will both reshape and drive global economic growth. In the coming era, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for 90% of the growth in the world’s working-age population, and the working-age population of the region is projected to be larger than India and China’s. (This is in the context of projected population declines in much of the rest of the world, including China, Germany and Japan.)
As a result, Africa is set to play a bigger role in shaping contemporary geopolitical and economic affairs. In September 2023, the African Union joined the Group of 20, the premier forum for international economic cooperation. The move gives the continent the same status as the European Union, which sits alongside 19 countries including the UK, Russia and the US.
One of the defining questions of this century is: How will Africa create the jobs to meet the population boom?
Creating growth and jobs for a new era
According to Afrobarometer, a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network, unemployment is the top policy priority that 18- to 35-year-olds want their governments to address, followed by economic management. This is not surprising given that between eight and 11 million young Africans will enter the labour market every year in the coming decades, yet only about three million new formal wage jobs are created yearly. Notably, South Africa, the most industrialised country in Africa, has one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world, with 61% of people aged 15 to 24 unemployed.
Action from governments and the private sector is required to close the gap between the increase in the working-age population and lagging job growth. Investment in human capital, including education and skills demanded in growth-enhancing sectors, will be critical to ensure this potential is realised. The good news is that young Africans are increasingly better educated: 44% graduated from high school in 2020, up from 27% in 2000. However, a Brookings report found that almost all countries in the region scored poorly in a measurement of digital skills, which are required to use the recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and green technologies.
The World Economic Forum is collaborating with governments to help close the skills gap. The Closing the Skills Gap Accelerators in South Africa and Nigeria aim to create national public-private collaboration platforms to address skills gaps and to reshape education and training for the future. And the Gender Parity Accelerator with the government of Kenya aims to close gender gaps in labour force participation, wages and leadership.
Achieving security and cooperation in a fractured world
A failure to harness Africa’s demographic dividend could lead to increasing social fragility. According to the Global Terrorism Index, deaths in the Sahel constituted 43% of the global total in 2022, compared with just 1% in 2007. Moreover, there have been 11 coups or attempted coups in the region since 2020, resulting in a backslide of democratic governments.
If the region does not create the necessary jobs fast there is an increased risk that disaffected young people could become a source of instability in already fragile societies. The same Afrobarometer survey found that, compared with older generations, young people are less trustful of government institutions and leaders, and more likely to view them as corrupt.
The cause of the coups varies: Violence, climate change, poor governance and economic challenges were among the drivers of popular unrest. On the economic front, almost one in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing double-digit inflation, and half of the low-income countries in the region are at high risk of, or in, debt distress.
Furthermore, exports from the region have been affected by the deceleration in China’s growth, the region’s largest trading partner and a major source of foreign direct investment (China’s loans to Africa declined from a peak of 28 billion in 2016 to one billion in 2023).
Critically, the common element for social fragility across the region is a restless young population with insufficient economic opportunities.
Accelerating implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area
The African Continental Free trade Area (AfCFTA) is the region’s best bet for driving structural transformation and industrialisation, thereby creating opportunities for skilled workers. The AfCFTA is the world’s largest free trade area, by population, covering 1.3 billion people with a combined GDP of $3-trillion. The agreement poses significant opportunities for increased competition, foreign direct investment inflows, economies of scale, transfer of knowledge and technology, productivity and economic diversification. The challenge now is implementation.
Read more in Daily Maverick: After the Bell: Africa rising? Not so much
To this end, the World Economic Forum – under the Forum Friends of the African Continental Free Trade Area – in collaboration with the AfCFTA Secretariat, is mobilising global business to support the implementation of the AfCFTA. At the annual meeting in 2023 this community of 40 private-sector partners launched a report on how global business can support the implementation of the trade pact. At this year’s meeting the members will launch the first private sector action plan, detailing their investments and commitments under the AfCFTA.
For the global economy to grow faster, African governments, in partnership with the private sector, must act to capitalise on Africa’s youth and dynamism. DM
Chido Munyati is Head of Regional Agenda, Africa, at the World Economic Forum.
This article was published as part of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024 discussions.
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