AFL captains agree on Brisbane Lions as the only lock-in for finals, but Geelong Cats are the most likely to make grand final

The Brisbane Lions are the only consensus pick from the AFL’s captains survey to make this year’s finals.

In the survey, all 18 skippers were asked which other team aside from their own would make the top eight — and the Lions received the maximum 17 nods.

Behind the Lions were last year’s premiers, Geelong, and the 2020 champions, Richmond, with 16 votes.

The 2022 eliminated finalists, Sydney and Melbourne, were next with 15, with only two teams not voting for them.

Fremantle had 12 votes while last year’s surprise packets, Collingwood, had 11. 

The captains’ view suggests that Carlton may be the team to break into the top eight after missing out narrowly last year, with the Blues earning nine votes for finals compared to six for the Western Bulldogs.

Others to poll were Port Adelaide (five), Gold Coast Suns (two), St Kilda and Adelaide (one each).

Five teams failed to garner a single vote as a chance to make finals: North Melbourne, Essendon, West Coast, GWS and Hawthorn.

Last year’s survey picked seven of the eight finalists. The big miss was the Fremantle Dockers, who received only two votes before their 15-win season took them to fifth on the ladder.

The incorrect consensus was that Port Adelaide would make the eight. The Power picked up 16 votes for finals before a tough season saw them finish 11th.

Grand final opponents

When it comes to who will make the grand final in 2023, eight captains felt the Cats would have a chance to go back-to-back, while four each backed the Lions and the Demons.

The only other teams to get a vote to make the decider were Richmond and Sydney, with one each.

Last year, no one picked either Geelong or Sydney to make it to the final game of the season.

Brownlow Medal

Eight players received votes to be the one to take out the AFL’s best-and-fairest, led by Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver with five.

The main expected challengers were Fremantle on-baller Andrew Brayshaw and 2020 winner Lachie Neale of Brisbane (three votes each), while the Bulldogs’ Marcus Bontempelli and Gold Coast’s Touk Miller each had two votes.

Others to poll were 2022 winner Carlton’s Patrick Cripps, Melbourne’s Christian Petracca and Sydney’s Callum Mills.

Coleman Medal

The Coleman Medal for the AFL’s leading goal-kicker is a race in two, as far as the captains are concerned.

Geelong spearhead Jeremy Cameron and Richmond full-forward Tom Lynch both received six votes, with one each for Carlton’s Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, Geelong’s Tom Hawkins, Brisbane’s new recruit Jack Gunston, Fremantle’s new forward Nat Fyfe and Western Bulldogs’ Aaron Naughton. 

Rising Star

There was a clear favourite in the captains survey for who would win this year’s Rising Star award, with Brisbane Lions midfielder Will Ashcroft earning eight of the 18 votes.

Ashcroft, a father-son selection for Brisbane in last year’s AFL draft, has impressed in preseason action and is expected to be a definite starter for round one.

His nearest challenger, voting-wise, was another father-son, tall ruck-forward Sam Darcy from the Western Bulldogs.

AFLW grand finallists

Not much change is expected in the women’s competition, with Melbourne and Brisbane expected to fight it out for the AFLW premiership.

Last year’s premiers, the Demons, and runners-up, the Lions, each polled six votes to make this year’s grand final.

Next best were the Adelaide Crows, with two votes, while North Melbourne, Sydney, Fremantle and Richmond each had one.