Everyone believes the AI bubble is mainly about stocks. That makes sense. The obvious historical comparison is the dot-com bubble. However, this one is all about credit unlike 1999. And that credit is now talking loudly through credit default swaps and other debt market signals.
Companies like Oracle and SpaceX have seen their CDS prices surge recently, with big moves in July across all the big names in AI tech: Amazon, Meta, and negative cash flow for the first time Google, Alphabet, whatever the company calls itself. Nvidia is seeing higher premiums. Even BlackRock trying to sell an AI-linked bond, similar results to what we talked about with Amazon’s bond.
The debt problem is spreading and deepening as the debt cycle turns more and more.
Eurodollar University’s Money & Macro Analysis
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