Are the Astros a good bet to win the 2022 World Series?

After playing in the World Series three times in the last five years, the Houston Astros World Series odds once again make them one of the teams to watch in October.

The current odds to win the 2022 World Series list the Astros as having the second-shortest odds, behind only the Dodgers. But will the Astros’ World Series odds be enough to win another championship?

Astros World Series odds 2022

Of course, anyone making MLB playoff predictions has to look at Houston as a bonafide championship contender.

All odds taken October 3 at FanDuel Sportsbook

However, the Houston Astros’ chances of winning the World Series will come down to a variety of factors. Let’s take a closer look at the Astros’ World Series odds and what will determine whether or not they end up as world champions in 2022 when all is said and done.

Who’s on first?

As one of the best offensive teams in the majors, the Astros aren’t short on impact hitters. However, there is still some question over who Dusty Baker will give the bulk of the playing time to at first base. Yuli Gurriel has been a big part of Houston’s lineup in the past, but he’s had a down season, hitting just eight home runs and posting an OPS under .650.

Houston traded for Trey Mancini during the season, although he’s hitting under .200 since joining the Astros despite providing plenty of power. Neither has done enough to guarantee them a spot in the lineup for every postseason game, although one of them is going to play first base.

Again, Houston’s lineup is deep and powerful. But it’s still hard to imagine a team having postseason success without offensive production at first base, which is a question the Astros will have to answer in October.

Is Jeremy Pena ready?

There’s no question that Jeremy Pena has performed far better than expected in 2022 as Houston’s shortstop after the team lost Carlos Correa in free agency. But the postseason is a whole other animal, especially for a 25-year-old rookie who’s playing for a team that expects to contend for a championship. He’ll need to produce with the bat and be steady defensively at shortstop.

Keep in mind that his offensive numbers have suffered during the second half of the season. The kicker is that Correa is a career .272 hitter with an OPS of .849 in the postseason.

Correa played in the postseason six times with the Astros, hitting 18 home runs and 16 doubles while driving in 59 runs over 79 games. They’ve gotten a lot out of Correa in past playoffs, leaving Pena big shoes to fill.

A second ace?

Winning in October typically boils down to starting pitching. Of course, the Astros have a bonafide ace in Justin Verlander to lead the rotation. But in the ALCS or the World Series, the Astros will be facing teams with multiple aces, leading to the question of whether or not Houston has a second or even a third ace.

Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez have both performed at that level during the regular season. However, can either translate that to the playoffs? Javier has 11 postseason appearances, all as a reliever. Valdez, meanwhile, owns a modest 4.53 postseason ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance. That includes a 7.78 ERA in five starts during the 2021 playoffs.

Could Lance McCullers Jr. round into form to be Houston’s no. 2 starter in the playoffs despite making just eight starts during the regular season? The depth has been there all year, but the Astros have to show that they have multiple aces in their rotation during the postseason.

Matching up with the Yankees

On paper, it seems inevitable that the Astros will face the Yankees in the ALCS. These teams have been head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the American League all season and had memorable meetings in the ALCS in both 2017 and 2019. While both teams could face a tough test in the Divisional Round, they seem to be on a collision course with one another.

The good news for the Astros is they won five of the seven head-to-head meetings with the Yankees during the regular season. However, the Yankees have been the better offensive team this season and have the best hitter in baseball in Aaron Judge, who is having a historic season.

They also have a pitching staff that isn’t far behind Houston’s staff in most categories. That could lead to another tight series with the Yankees, giving the Astros a small margin for error.

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The other league

Outside of the Yankees, there are other teams that could stand in Houston’s way of another world championship. The Dodgers are the first team that comes to mind, as they have been a dominant force in the National League and the best team in baseball throughout the regular season. Los Angeles arguably has the deepest rotation and deepest lineup in the majors. They are the clear betting favorites heading into the postseason and would be favored head-to-head against any team in baseball.

Even if someone else takes care of the Dodgers for Houston, the Astros could still end up facing the Braves, who beat them in the World Series last year, or the Mets, who have been a quality team all season and boast two of the best pitchers in the game in Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer at the top of their rotation, potentially giving them an edge head-to-head against any other team.

Will the Astros win the 2022 World Series?

On paper, the Astros appear to be a great candidate to win the World Series. However, there is a lot standing in their way.

For starters, the Astros will need young starters who don’t have a lot of playoff experience to play a significant role in a deep postseason run and come through in big games on multiple occasions.

Meanwhile, one could argue that both the Yankees and Dodgers playing at their best are a better team than the Astros playing at their best. There are also a few other teams that could potentially trip up Houston during the postseason.

Of course, the Astros have a chance and will be a team to watch closely in October, but it may not be in the cards for Houston to win the 2022 World Series.