Once defined solely by a critical lack of supply, Canada’s
housing crisis
now faces the compounding challenge of plummeting sales.
Sales over the past year have dropped in major centres across the country, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where the housing shortage remains most acute. Home sales in the GTA fell 11.2 per cent in 2025, according to the
Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
, and are
63 per cent for single-family homes and 89 per cent for condos versus the 10-year average. In January, year-over-year home sales declined by 19.3 per cent.
Sales aren’t falling because Canadians have given up on homeownership, but because consumer confidence has dipped amid trade tensions and a softening economy. Buyers are also confused by delays in the implementation of government policy, such as the promise to remove sales tax from new homes for first-time buyers.
If those sales volumes fail to rebound, then
housing construction
will continue to grind to a halt.
But Canada can’t afford to stop building — even in a downturn. We simply need more supply of all types of housing too much. We need it for those Canadians who want to buy homes and for those whose jobs are to build them.
The federal government is already removing its portion of the
GST
/
HST
from all new homes for first-time buyers, a measure that has been delayed by the long timeline to pass the legislation. Ontario is also planning to remove its portion of the HST, again only for first-time buyers.
Housing is an ecosystem and to really get the sector moving, we need to encourage all consumers, not just first-time buyers. Both governments can do this by immediately expanding the GST/HST cut to all new homebuyers, as new polling conducted for Mattamy Homes by Abacus Data in January affirms.
Specifically, of the 52 per cent of Canadians who intend to purchase a home, one-third say they have delayed buying in the past year because homes are too expensive, according to the survey of nearly 2,500 people. Among these reluctant but active buyers, 59 per cent say an expanded GST rebate would make them more likely to buy.
Among Canadians who have previously owned or currently own a home, 39 per cent say they would be more likely to buy if the GST rebate were extended to them. The impact is strongest among cost-constrained, non-first-time buyers who want to buy, but have delayed their purchase due to high costs: 79 per cent say the cut would make them more likely to buy a new home.
In Ontario, the numbers tell a similar story: extending the rebate to all new home buyers would improve sales. In that province, 65 per cent of hopeful buyers say they would be at least somewhat more likely to buy if the HST were eliminated. That jumps to 76 per cent among those who delayed a purchase over cost.
These Canadians are more than just numbers on a page. They are families in condos that are too small and are delaying having another child because they cannot afford somewhere large enough to accommodate their growing family. They are seniors who would love to move closer to their grandkids and free up their single-family home for a condo in the city. They are people commuting hours each day to work because the cost of moving closer to their job is prohibitive.
These are just some examples of the Canadian homeowners for whom both levels of government need to extend the HST cut.
In addition, if sales don’t increase, thousands of good, well-paying jobs could be on the line.
If housing construction stalls, a total of 41,000 jobs would be lost in the GTA, according to a
for the Building Industry and Land Development Association. Of that, 18,500 jobs are directly associated with housing construction (a little less than half of the GTA’s direct housing construction workforce) and another 21,000 indirect jobs would be lost.
The same report said the combined fiscal impact on all three levels of government of those job losses, through reduced tax revenue, would be approximately $6.5 billion per year.
The reality is that many builders have shovel-ready projects, but lack the sales numbers to move forward. Unwinding decades of red tape and hidden taxes (such as development charges) embedded within the housing system is important, but those measures will take time to have a full impact.
Only expanding eligibility for the GST/HST rebate will have the immediate effect needed to drive housing sales and, in turn, keep shovels in the ground and create the jobs that move them.
Canadians need less taxation on their homes. Our country needs more housing supply and our economy needs the jobs that come from a healthy home construction industry. Government can act by expanding the HST rebate to all new homebuyers and creating the conditions for the entire housing ecosystem to thrive. The time to act is now.
Brad Carr is chief executive of Mattamy Homes Canada.
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