France’s allies relieved by Le Pen’s loss but wonder what’s next

Participants wave French national tricolours as fireworks light up the sky during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France’s legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on 7 July 2024. (Emmanuel Dunand/AFP)

• France’s snap election result averted the potential rise
  of the far-right, with Marine Le Pen’s National Rally failing to secure a
  government.
• This relieved France’s allies but raised concerns about
  future stability due to a hung parliament.
• The election resulted in a divided French parliament,
  with the left, centrists, and far-right holding significant portions but
  lacking a tradition of collaboration.

Many
of France’s allies breathed a sigh of relief that the worst was averted as
Marine Le Pen’s far-right failed to win a snap election on Sunday but they
noted that a messy coalition from a hung parliament could also pose headaches
for Europe.

Le
Pen’s National Rally (RN) had been favourite to top the polls, raising the risk
of France’s first far-right government since World War Two and threatening to
upend economic and foreign policy in the euro zone’s second-largest economy.

In
particular, Ukraine’s allies feared a Le Pen-led government could be soft on
Moscow and pare back military aid that Kyiv has relied on since the Russian
invasion in 2022, though her party has latterly said Russia was a threat.

The
National Rally’s defeat signals at least a temporary pushback against a
far-right surge in Europe, but it could also herald a period of instability
with a new government in uneasy “cohabitation” with President
Emmanuel Macron.

“In
Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy
in Warsaw,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on X.

READ | Leftist alliance leads French election, no absolute majority, initial estimates show

Macron
had called the snap poll in an attempt to wrest the initiative back from Le Pen,
but his own party was left trailing behind an alliance of leftist parties that
performed far better than expected to take first place.

Several
early reactions from overseas rejoiced that the immediate threat of a far-right
government had been averted.

“The
worst has been avoided,” said Nils Schmid, the foreign policy spokesperson
for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats in Germany, where the far-right
has also surged in popularity during a cost of living crisis.

“The
president is politically weakened, even if he retains a central role in view of
the unclear majority situation. Forming a government will be complicated,”
Schmid told the Funke media group.

Spanish
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s party congratulated the leftist alliance, called
the New Popular Front, for a victory that “stops the far-right from
reaching the government”.

Nikos
Androulakis, the head of Greece’s Socialist PASOK party, said the French people
had “raised a wall against the far right, racism and intolerance and
guarded the timeless principles of the French Republic: Liberty, Equality and
Fraternity.”

Colombia’s
leftist firebrand President, Gustavo Petro, also congratulated the French for
keeping out Le Pen.

He said:

An
EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, called it a “huge
relief” but added: “what it means for Europe on a day to day basis
remains to be seen though.”

Deep divisions

The
election left the French parliament split between three large groups – the
left, the centrists, and the far right – with different platforms and no
tradition of working together.

The
left wants to cap prices of essential goods like fuel and food, raise the
minimum wage and the salaries of public sector workers, at a time when France’s
budget deficit is already at 5.5% of output, higher than EU rules permit.

“Bye-bye
European deficit limits! (The government) will crash in no time. Poor France.
It can console itself with (Kylian) Mbappé,” said Claudio Borghi, senator
from Italy’s right-wing League party, referring to the French soccer star.

A veiled Muslim woman holds a national flag as people celebrate on a street after the first results of the second round of France’s legislative election in Marseille on 7 July 2024. (Nicolas Tucat/AFP)

AFP

Other
hard-right politicians expressed frustration.

Andre
Ventura, leader of Portugal’s far-right party Chega, called the result a
“disaster for the economy, tragedy for immigration and bad for the fight
against corruption”.

A
note by Capital Economics said France may have avoided the “worst possible
outcomes” for investors, of an outright majority for either Le Pen or the
leftists.

A
fractious parliament means however it will be difficult for any government to
pass the budget cuts that are necessary for France to comply with the EU’s
budget rules, it said.

“Meanwhile,
the chance of France’s government (and the governments of other countries)
clashing with the EU over fiscal policy has increased now that the bloc’s
budget rules have been re-introduced,” it said.