Conservative leaders at the helm of the German government suggest they can cut down the far right’s influence by cracking down on immigration and improving the economy. But polls show they are loosing voters’ support while the AfD gains.
The slow but steady increase in popularity of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has been a theme in German politics this year.
In a turn of events that many readers of The Local called “terrifying” or “worrying”, the anti-immigration party won its largest share of votes ever in the national election in February, which was notably the biggest success by a far-right party in a German federal election since the end of the Second World War.
Since then, the AfD has seen its support steadily increase.
Last week, a YouGov poll suggested that the AfD’s support had climbed to 25 percent, whereas the conservative Union parties (CDU/CSU) had seen their support slip by one percentage point since taking the helm of the federal government.
In even worse news for the conservatives, a Forsa poll published on Tuesday, found that the AfD and Union parties are tied in terms of voter support – with each party having the support of about 25 percent of German voters at present.
The CDU/CSU has notably shifted further to the right under the leadership of Chancellor Friendrich Merz who has insisted that the AfD can’t be banned, and instead must be defeated democratically.
Merz’ argument, as he has said, is that the government should “help people regain trust in the political center, so that they no longer feel the need to vote for a party like the AfD.”
But if the polls are to be believe, so far his efforts in that direction aren’t working. Increasingly it looks like the conservatives are actually empowering the far-right by normalising their platform.
How are conservatives empowering the far-right?
AfD leader Alice Weidel appeared in her televised summer interview with ARD on Sunday, but the interview which was held on an outdoor stage in Berlin was notably disrupted by the sounds of a loud protest nearby.
Interestingly, CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann immediately criticised the protest, telling RTL/ntv that such actions “make the AfD strong”.
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Speaking out against a protest aimed at an opposition party may seem a bit strange, but it’s only the latest in a series of examples of conservative leaders positioning themselves close to the far right rather than opposed to it.
When Germany’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution released a report confirming the AfD as “extremist”, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CDU) downplayed the report in his own comments, suggesting that it dealt with violations of human dignity but not violations of the rule of democracy.
Political consultant Johannes Hillje argued, in a recent report for Tagesspiegel, that the Interior Minister’s comments “devalued the significance of the report of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.”
He added “anyone who reads the report” would see that Dobrindt’s comments were not true, and that he could not explain why the Interior Minister made the statement.
Analysis by Amnesty International Germany which compared the programs of the AfD and CDU/CSU during the last election cycle found that they were almost identical on nine points, whereas the AfD had another five unique points, and the Union parties had just three not congruent with the far right.
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Supporting their own threat
It’s as of yet uncertain if the conservatives’ goal of winning back voters from the far right is realistic, but the latest polls suggest that it’s not.
Meanwhile, the AfD’s political goals do seem to be supported by the Union’s tactics.
“The party is striving to eliminate the political center…” Hillje told Tagesspiegel, effectively pushing the Social Democrats and the Greens to the Left and taking more and more voters from the Union as the right-wing parties’ platforms look more and more similar.
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“I am skeptical that ‘good governance’ can actually substantially undermine the AfD,” political scientist Benjamin Höhne told Tagesspiegel, adding that right-wing populist forces are adept at exploiting coalition disputes and other crises in representative democracy.
There’s no evidence at present that CDU/CSU leaders would make a U-turn on their idea of governing the AfD into submission.
Höhne suggests that a rethink could be possible following next year’s state elections, especially if the conservatives have lost more voters in key states by then.
The risk, of course, is that by then attempts to reverse the trend could be too little too late.
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