Follow tonight’s election results with the iPolitics team.
Good afternoon, iPolitics readers!
We’ll have full coverage of the results as soon as the first batch of returns start to roll in from Atlantic Canada shortly after 7 p.m. ET, as well as fresh dispatches from both the Liberal and Conservative election night events in Ottawa , so stay tuned.
For a recap of what happened on the campaign trail today, check out today’s live blog.
10:19 p.m.
A very belated postscript to those now legendary byelections in Toronto – St. Paul’s and LaSalle – Émard – Verdun, Que: After a stunning upset win by Conservative contender Don Stewart, Liberal hopeful Leslie Church is currently on track to retake the downtown Toronto riding for her party, while Claude Guay is ahead of Bloc Quebecois incumbent Louis-Philippe Sauvé,
10:11 p.m.
CBC News has called it — Mark Carney will continue to be prime minister of his newly re-elected Liberal government, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll do so from a position of majority or minority.
Reporting from the Conservative election night, Sarah reports that CTV News has also called it for the Liberals, as has Global News — “news that was met by utter silence at the CPC headquarters on election night,” although once again, no one is willing to predict whether it will be a big or a little M.
Here’s the scene at Liberal HQ, courtesy of Marco:
10:10 p.m.
Popular vote numbers are fascinating right now. Liberals at over 50% while the Bloc Quebecois (which I should remind you only run candidates in ONE province) leading the NDP. Not in seat count — in the raw vote total #cdnpoli #cdnelxn pic.twitter.com/WofiQbkuZx
— Marco Vigliotti (@Marco_Vigliotti) April 29, 2025
10:06 p.m.
While it continues to be not a great night for the New Democrats, two incumbent MPs are leading in their respective ridings: Niki Ashton in Churchill – Keewatinook Aski, Man., and Lori Idlout in Nunavut.
10:03 p.m.
From iPolitics’ own Marco at the Liberal campaign night event: “A Liberal source tells me they’re ‘feeling good,’ confident of the campaign they’ve run and about the future of the party, pointing to record growth in fundraising and the turnout of volunteers. But they say it’s a ‘tight race’ as expected and are still in wait and see mode.”
9:57 p.m.
The floor is starting to fill up here at the TD Place, where the Liberals are holding their watch party tonight, though the stands remain… sparsely filled #cdnpoli #cdnelxn pic.twitter.com/eZe6NTHLEl
— Davis Legree (@DavisLegree) April 29, 2025
9:55 p.m.
Sean Fraser remains in danger in Central Nova, where’s down by nearly 400 votes with nearly three quarters of polls reporting. Would be a stunning loss for the Liberals on a night where they’ve been able to hold most of their Atlantic Canadian ridings #cdnpoli #cdnelxn
— Davis Legree (@DavisLegree) April 29, 2025
9:52 p.m.
We’re seeing LPC leading or elected in 40 ridings, CPC in 29. The 29 number keeps flipping between 29 and 30, resulting in cheering, then silence, the ln cheering again here at the Conservative HQ.
— Sarah MacFarlane (@SarahKMacF) April 29, 2025
Some passionate booing when Carney appears on the screen pic.twitter.com/EIdXiWkmXQ
— Sarah MacFarlane (@SarahKMacF) April 29, 2025
9:48 p.m.
The map is starting to be filled in. So far, from very early results, no real surprises. Liberals leading in a few Bloc-held seats, though way too early to draw conclusions. Tories leading in at least 2 Liberal-held ridings in Ontario, but again by small margins #cdnpoli #cdnelxn pic.twitter.com/KEtn8E9XVK
— Marco Vigliotti (@Marco_Vigliotti) April 29, 2025
9:41 p.m.
The New Democrats have finally made it onto the board in Kenora-Kiiwetinoong, Ont. and Leduc-Wetaskiwin in Alberta — both Conservative-held ridings — as per very, very, very, very early returns.
9:27 p.m.
Filling up in here now with 10 mins to go before the polls close in Ont. and Que.
Still pretty quiet in the room, all things considered. pic.twitter.com/uIWuWYYDGN— Sarah MacFarlane (@SarahKMacF) April 29, 2025
9:22 p.m.
Not sure what’s happening here in the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne, but we’re seeing results from a riding where polls are still open? Polls aren’t scheduled to close in Quebec for another 10 minutes #cdnpoli #cdnelxn pic.twitter.com/X0hV0lSWZu
— Davis Legree (@DavisLegree) April 29, 2025
9:15 p.m.
This is your official 15 minute warning: At 9:30 p.m. ET, the polls close from Quebec right through to Alberta, although we’ll have to wait another 30 minutes for the West Coast to wind down the vote.
9:13 p.m.
Numbers don’t look superb for the Liberals but folks in the Carney camp still feeling confident & calm, I’m told. A lot of focus on the NDP collapse. Out east, it may not really matter. But elsewhere, it definitely will. Still, acknowledgement that Cons outperforming now #cdnpoli
— Marco Vigliotti (@Marco_Vigliotti) April 29, 2025
9:01 p.m.
The atmosphere is getting tense watching Central Nova, where Sean Fraser is battling it out with CPC candidate Brycen Jenkins.
— Sarah MacFarlane (@SarahKMacF) April 29, 2025
8:39 p.m.
Lost in the shuffle – the cratering of the NDP vote in a region where they haven’t been historically strong (with exceptions). Still super early but in 2021, the NDP’s worst province in Atl Canada was PEI (9.2%). The best was NS (22.1%). We’re a far cry from either #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/1V8HrVkOKN
— Marco Vigliotti (@Marco_Vigliotti) April 29, 2025
Sarah points out: Pollster David Colleto told us earlier today that he’s watching Atlantic Canada, particularly Halifax — where the Liberals currently have a strong lead —to see if the NDP vote “collapses”. That seems to be the case. He said that if the Liberals can hold Atlantic seats, he said it’s a “signal”. “Despite what we had been seen in the past few months about that urban-rural divide, could Liberal sell in those rural parts where the carbon tax was a big issue?” he said. “if they’re doing well in those rural ridings in Atlantic Canada, it might signal that they’ve been able to overcome what was a deeply unpopular policy and government previously, and found new life again.”
8:32 p.m.
More from Davis: We have the first flip of the night! The Conservatives have picked up the key swing riding of Long Range Mountains, which had been a firm target on the Tory’s target list after Liberal cabinet minister Gudie Hutchings decided not to run again.That makes Carol Antsey the newest member of Parliament, as she took down former NTV journalist Don Bradshaw.
Experts had previously told iPolitics that a Conservative flip in Long Range Mountains could portend strong results for the Tories in Atlantic Canada and beyond.
“Dominic LeBlanc is heading back to Ottawa after he was re-elected for ninth-consecutive time in the southeastern New Brunswick riding of Beauséjour. LeBlanc, a longtime cabinet minister under Justin Trudeau, also figures to be a critical player in Mark Carney’s government, assuming, of course, the Liberals win tonight’s election.Most recently, LeBlanc was included in Carney’s cabinet as trade minister, which appears like it just might be an important portfolio in the coming months.
8:20 p.m.
A fresh dispatch from Davis:
You can add two more Liberal hopefuls to the list of candidates who are now projected to be elected, including Tom Osborne in Cape Spear, the riding that replaced former cabinet minister Seamus O’Regan’s riding of St. John’s South—Mount Pearl.The race has also been called in Acadie—Bathurst, where Serge Cormier has been re-elected for the third time.Meanwhile, in our battleground check-in, the Conservatives have extended their lead in Newfoundland’s Long Range Mountains, a traditional Liberal stronghold that appears ready to flip, as Tory nominee Carol Antsey is leading by 2,235 votes with nearly half of polls reporting.
The race has been called in Central Newfoundland, where Clifford Small has won a second term in the House of Commons.Small’s victory was much more decisive than his previous win in 2021, when he defeated longtime Liberal incumbent Scott Simms by fewer than 300 votes. Currently, with more than half of polls reporting, Small is winning by nearly 4,000 votes.
Meanwhile, Liberal candidate Paul Connors will become a rookie MP, as he’s projected to win Avalon, a riding that Ken McDonald, one of the previous Liberal caucus’ more rebellious members, had previously held since 2015.
7:56 p.m.
It’s worth noting that, as of right now — and according to the CBCNN ticker, which is proving to be the most efficient way of following the results in real-time without constant pop geography quizzes — the Liberals are leading in 14 seats, the Conservatives in four, and — that’s it. No other colour on the board yet.
CBC News has also made the first ‘elected’ call of the night: Congratulations are, it seems, in order to Liberal hopeful Philip Earle, who appears to be on track to represent the voters of Labrador in the next House of Commons.
7:52 p.m.
Greetings from Lansdowne – @DavisLegree and I are at the Liberal election night event in Ottawa. Festivities aren’t expected to start until 9:30 #cdnpoli #cdnelxn pic.twitter.com/wm5bhE1h6f
— Marco Vigliotti (@Marco_Vigliotti) April 28, 2025
7:41 p.m.
The merch is out, the bar is open, and the hot pretzels are being served: welcome to the 2025 CPC election event. pic.twitter.com/NH3Jzhr69i
— Sarah MacFarlane (@SarahKMacF) April 28, 2025
7:36 p.m.
The Liberals are now officially ahead, at least for now, with (early, early, early) leads in six ridings to three for the Conservatives, and still no colours other than red or blue on the board.
Here’s a quick update from Davis on one of the East Coast ridings he’s watching:
Results have started to pour in from one of our first key Battleground ridings — Long Range Mountains in western Newfoundland, where the Conservatives are off to an early lead. With 15 polls reporting, Conservative nominee Carol Antsey is leading the Liberals’ Don Bradshaw by 337 votes.During the campaign, Alex Marland, a political scientist who spent 17 years in the faculty at Memorial University in St. John’s, N.L., said, “if the Conservatives manage to flip [Long Range Mountains], which has been Liberal for a long-time, then it’s a sign of bad things to come for the Liberals.”
7:30 p.m.
The polls are now closed in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and on Prince Edward Island, which means we’re soon going to start getting results from all those ridings. At the moment, though, the Conservatives are very much holding their own Newfoundland and Labrador with candidates ahead in two seats compared to two for the Liberals, and none for any of the other parties in the mix.
Also, courtesy of Marco Vigliotti, the view from his perch at the Liberals’ election night party:
7:15 p.m.
And the Liberals have also claimed the very (very) early lead in Labrador, courtesy of Philip Earle, while the Conservatives are also ahead in Terra Nova – The Peninsulas, where Jonathan Rowe is up by six votes over Liberal hopeful Anthony Germain. (No, I’m not going to do this for every single poll to report in every single riding, but this is traditionally the 30 minutes of every election when all eyes are on Newfoundland and Labrador.)
7:08 p.m.
The first riding to make it onto the board is Central Newfoundland, where Conservative incumbent Clifford Small has eked out an early lead with 108 votes from the one poll that has reported back so far.
7 p.m.
And we’re off! The polls have officially closed in Newfoundland and Labrador, which means we should start to get the first wave of numbers within the next 15-20 minutes.
Back in Ottawa, Sarah chatted with a Conservative insider who admitted that he’s not expecting a dramatic come-from-behind victory:
An insider to a Conservative campaign tells us it’s still a “tough call”, but says that he personally “doesn’t have any optimism” that the Conservatives will reign victorious.
That said, the margin of victory in key ridings will impact the results, he added. He also said he expects the Conservatives will see a voter turnout that could come close to the Liberals, but that it “won’t translate to anywhere as many seats”.
This strategist is watching Carleton, he said, where “the story of the longtime local MP turned leader in a toss-up, while the brand new unproven Liberal Leader is parachuted into Nepean is a great allegory for the overall campaign.”
He said the “real excitement” is in watching the Greater Toronto Area ridings, where both parties have been pouring tons of resources — particularly Whitby, Ajax and Pickering, as well as ridings like Burlington and Oakville, and says he’s also “fascinated” by some BC ridings that are a “toss-up” between the Conservatives and the New Democrats.
Another Conservative strategist says he’s going “back and forth” between predicting a Liberal majority and a Conservative minority — “I’m so unclear.” He says the key will be ridings in Quebec City, then in Oshawa, the GTA, etc, where “if we can’t make headway”, the outlook is bleak.
6:45 p.m.
Tonight’s the night. I’m at the Conservative event at the Roger’s Centre, where Pierre Poilievre will be later tonight. Stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/XIEbWsSSjE
— Sarah MacFarlane (@SarahKMacF) April 28, 2025
Quiet here so far — doors will open to the public at 9 p.m.
— Sarah MacFarlane (@SarahKMacF) April 28, 2025
6:40 p.m.
We’ve still got a few minutes to go before the polls close in Newfoundland and Labrador, with the rest of Atlantic Canada to follow 30 minutes later, but here are two East Coast races worth watching, courtesy of iPolitics’ own Davis Legree:
Long Range Mountains (Newfoundland and Labrador):
As the first province where polls will close, Newfoundland and Labrador is a key region insofar that it can set the tone for how the rest of the night will play out. Many remember how the Liberal sweep of Atlantic Canada in 2015 was the first indication of the party’s majority win under Justin Trudeau.
While Newfoundland is projected to elect Liberals in most (if not all) of the province’s seven ridings, there’s a few key races that help foreshadow results in the rest of Canada.
In that sense, we’ll be monitoring the race in Long Range Mountains, where former Trudeau cabinet minister Gudie Hutchings is looking for another term in Parliament in a riding that pollsters have said is firmly on the Conservatives’ target list.
An important distinction to make — Hutchings should win, so, if she does, there’s probably not a ton to read into the result. However, if Conservative nominee Carol Antsey scores an upset, it may portend strong results for the Tories in the rest of Atlantic Canada and beyond.
Fredericton—Oromocto (New Brunswick):
Now, if you’re looking for a riding that often embodies the prevailing national mood, look no further than Fredericton—Oromocto. It’s clear that residents of the New Brunswick capital like chips with their dip. Notwithstanding that very dated reference, they tend to pick winners.
During the Chretien and Martin years, Fredericton—Oromocto sent Liberals to Ottawa, but the riding turned blue during the crux of Stephen Harper’s tenure as prime minister. Other than an out-of-nowwhere victory from Jenica Atwin and the Greens in 2019 (with Atwin eventually crossing the floor to join the Liberals), the party that wins in Fredericton—Oromocto usually goes on to form the next government.
With the incumbent Atwin leaving federal politics, Juno-winning singer David Myles is running under the Liberal banner, but the Conservatives are hoping they’ll be able to turn the riding blue once again.
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