Mark Carney’s Chances Against Pierre Poilievre As Campaign Nears Milestone

Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is the favorite to win Canada’s upcoming election over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, according to polls.

One survey shows the incumbent Canadian prime minister’s party has a double-digit lead over its nearest challenger as the snap election campaign nears the halfway point.

Why It Matters

The Liberal Party under Carney is on course for a remarkable turnaround, having previously faced a potential electoral wipeout under the leadership of recently departed former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The surge in support coincides with Carney’s strong response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and the repeated suggestion that Canada should join the U.S. as its 51st state.

What to Know

Carney called for a snap election on March 23 shortly after replacing Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party.

Canadians will head to the polls on April 28, meaning the country is about halfway through its current election campaign.

Polls suggest that Carney’s Liberals are the frontrunners in the election over the Conservatives, who previously led the polls throughout 2024.

An Ipsos poll of 1,000 Canadian adults showed the Liberal Party with a 12-point lead over the Conservatives (46 percent to 34 percent), with Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party third at 10 percent and no other party getting beyond single-digit support.

This would put the Liberal Party on course to win the upcoming election with an outright majority. Unlike the U.S., Canadians do not vote for a single individual to lead the country. Instead, the leader of the party with a majority of the 343 members of Parliament (MPs) becomes prime minister. Each seat in Canada’s lower chamber, the House of Commons, will be contested on April 28.

The Ipsos survey also showed that 45 percent of Canadians believe Carney would make the best prime minister, compared to 32 percent for Poilievre.

The Ipsos survey was conducted between April 1 and April 3. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

A three-day rolling poll by Nanos Research ending April 8, conducted for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, showed a tighter race.

The survey places the Liberal Party at 42.8 percent, with the Conservatives about 4 points behind at 38.6 percent.

Carney holds a larger 13-point lead over Poilievre as Canadians’ preferred choice for prime minister (47.4 percent to 34.3 percent). However, Carney’s score is down 2.8 points from three days prior, while Poilievre’s rose by 3.3 points.

The CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey was conducted April 6 to 8 among 1,239 people. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

In late March, an Angus Reid Institute poll showed the Liberals with an 8-point lead (46 percent to 38 percent) over the Conservatives.

The Conservatives had led Angus Reid Institute polling as recently as March 3.

The latest survey was conducted from March 21 to 24, 2025, among 2,400 Canadian adults. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Polymarket, an online platform where users bet on the likelihood of world events, is currently offering a 78 percent chance that Carney will be the next prime minister of Canada. Poilievre has a 22 percent chance, down from more than 90 percent at the start of 2025.

What People Are Saying

Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, said of April’s survey: “We are in a world where 39 percent support for the Conservatives is not enough to win an election. This is a result of the increasing polarization centered around the two front-running parties.”

Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, wrote in an analysis of March’s poll: “There is also no doubt that the switch from the tremendously unpopular leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the much more liked Mark Carney has played a significant role in the Liberals’ rise from their support ditch. Approaching half (46 percent) of Canadians say their opinion of Carney has improved in recent weeks, as a majority (54 percent) view him favorably. He is also the only national party leader who has a net positive rating on both those metrics.”

What Happens Next

Canada’s snap election will take place on April 28.