NBA draft lottery winners and losers, plus how do the Raptors fit?

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A day after one of the most nerve-racking days on the basketball calendar, it’s time to gauge the NBA draft lottery’s winners and losers.

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Obviously it will take time to know the full impacts of what went down on Sunday, and that includes the fate of the Raptors, but some of the takeaways are pretty obvious:

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In an ode to Beck, we’ll start with the teams that had tough days.

LOSERS

DETROIT PISTONS

No NBA team has won fewer games since 2008-09 than Detroit. The Pistons took another familiar L on Sunday, falling all the way to fifth despite having the worst regular-season record and a share of the best odds (14%) of selecting first. The good news: This wasn’t as soul-crushing as when the same thing happened last lottery when Victor Wembanyama was up for grabs. Incredibly, this is the third straight time Detroit has dropped to No. 5 (they were merely third-worst pre-lotto two years ago), which has cost a franchise that desperately needs a boost a shot at players like Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren or Brandon Miller, amongst others. They did get lucky to move from No. 2 in 2021 to get Cade Cunningham at least, but make no mistake, even in a draft perceived as weak, it’s always better to have a higher pick in the first round. There’s a higher shot at hitting on a pick and on getting value in a trade. Oof.

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CHARLOTTE HORNETS

They moved up twice in the previous four years to land key players (Miller and LaMelo Ball), but this time fell three spots. It’s not a huge deal, but if you buy the argument many have made that three prospects are ahead of any others in this group, whatever is left at six might not be nearly as helpful for a team desperate to get back on track.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS/MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Portland has tanked to near perfection in recent years when injuries have hit and again put on a clinic, but the basketball gods said ‘not this time’ and the team fell from four to seven. As we said about Charlotte, it’s not a huge fall, but it’s enough to get in this category. Meanwhile, Memphis had just about everything go wrong in 2023-24 and was hoping for a win here. Instead it was a move back two spots to nine. This definitely was  not the year to tank, as six of the eight worst teams fell in the lottery (with Washington staying at two and San Antonio moving up one spot to fourth),

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WINNERS

HOUSTON ROCKETS

I’ve got Houston as an even bigger winner than the teams that will pick ahead it. With 50.7% odds of staying at nine, Houston instead vaulted all the way to three (the odds for that were just 5.2%). The pick comes from Brooklyn as part of the return from when James Harden forced his way to the Nets (before he forced his way to the Sixers, before he forced his way to the Clippers). Houston is trying to be competitive now so it might deal the pick, but it’s a lot more valuable than the ninth selection would have been. The Rockets got way more for Harden than the other teams he spurned did.

ATLANTA HAWKS

With only 3% odds of leaping to first and 14.9% of going to anywhere in the Top 4, a franchise in the middle of nowhere got a big break. They still have to figure out what to do with Trae Young (or Dejounte Murray) and will have to move out Clint Capela (or, less likely, Onyeka Okongwu) if they go big with the pick, but this is a far better outcome than staying at 10.

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It’s too bad for the Hawks that this isn’t one of those drafts featuring a no-doubt stud at the top, but there’s still a chance to grab a future all-star here. Atlanta badly needs that opportunity and there wasn’t a pathway to it anytime soon before ex-Raptor Landry Fields got the good news that his team had won the lottery for the first time (they won coin flips in 1975 and 1976 for No. 1).

UTAH JAZZ

But the Jazz fell two spots to 10, which is bad, right? Well, yes and no. Moving down always is less than ideal, but Utah started selling off during the season realizing the playoffs or play-in were lost causes and wanted to keep the pick. Falling below 10 would have meant the pick would have gone to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Utah still owes a top-10-protected first to the Thunder next year (or Top-9 protected in 2026) but got rewarded for throwing in the towel this year. The team also has so many future firsts incoming from the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades that it’s probably better to lose a pick next year anyway. You only can have so many young players on a roster and expect to develop them properly/become competitive.

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DON’T KNOW YET

TORONTO/SAN ANTONIO

Was Toronto better off losing the pick now instead of in next year’s draft, which is considered loaded with far more talent? And conversely, was it a win for the Spurs to get a chance to give Wembanyama more young help with a No. 8 pick now (along with moving up to No. 4 with their own pick) instead of waiting a year? It probably depends on who the Spurs pick at No. 8 and who the Raptors land next year, and also what other moves both franchises make that are partly impacted by how this played out (ie. do the Raptors use the extra cap room they got from losing the pick now to add more picks or young talent for unwanted longer contracts/do they use it to sign a free agent?).

We’d argue Toronto’s best-case scenario was moving up into the Top 3, but that falling to eight and giving that pick to the Spurs for Jakob Poeltl was far from the worst-case result.

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