The AFC East title could effectively be won on Sunday as either the Bills or the Patriots will have the inside track at the division crown with just two weeks remaining when these two duke it out in Foxborough. This is the second time in a matter of just a few weeks that these teams have seen each other with the first contest occurring up in Buffalo back in Week 13. Given that there were unrelenting winds in that game which forced the Patriots to pass just three times in that eventual win, there may not be much that translates from that previous matchup, but this will be appointment viewing for those interested in the playoff picture in the AFC.
While we wait for this game to kick off, let this be your preview for what’s to come. Below, we’ll tell you how you can watch this game unfold on CBS, reveal our keys to the game, and make our prediction for how we see this shaking out.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Dec. 26 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Patriots -2.5, O/U 43.5
Keys to the game
Can the Patriots control the game on the run?
New England almost exclusively ran the football against Buffalo back in their first matchup of the year. While they likely won’t record 46 rushing attempts in this game like they did back in Week 13, the Patriots offense does begin and end on the ground. The Bills haven’t been particularly strong at stopping the run this season, allowing 112 rushing yards per game (17th in the NFL), and are allowing 3 yards post-contact per rush (fourth-most in the NFL). The means Damien Harris (hamstring) and/or Rhamondre Stevenson (illness) could be asked to take on a big role. Harris led the Patriots backfield in their previous matchup with 111 rushing yards on 10 carries back in Week 13.
Josh Allen vs. Patriots defense
Josh Allen is as talented as they come at the quarterback position and his big arm was even able to move the ball down the field through the elements back in Week 13 at times. That said, the Patriots do pose an interesting matchup for Allen, who has struggled against Bill Belichick in his career. Allen is 2-4 against New England and has a career completion percentage of 55.3% against them while averaging 199.5 passing yards per game.
In that game a few weeks ago, the Patriots lined up in either Cover-1 or Cover -3 in 81% of their defensive snaps. Both of those coverages have been a weak area for Allen. Against Cover 1, he’s completing just 59% of his passes (16th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks). When facing a Cover-3 defense, Allen is completing 69% of his throws (17th) and has a 7.7 yards per attempt average (16th).
Prediction
Latest Odds:
New England Patriots
-2.5
The Patriots are coming into this matchup following a loss to the Indianapolis Colts last Saturday. In that loss, their struggles against the run were extremely apparent as Jonathan Taylor ran all over the defense for 170 yards. While Buffalo did run the football well last week against Carolina, this is a pass-first offense, which does play well into the Patriots’ hands. New England typically doesn’t come out flat two games in a row, so they should be back in typical form, which isn’t ideal news for the Bills.
Pick: Patriots 27, Bills 23
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