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Support for National Party leader Christopher Luxon bounces back in new poll

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A new poll has the National Party with enough support to govern in coalition, and leader Christopher Luxon bouncing back from a dent in his preferred prime minister ranking.

The boost for National came as Luxon confirmed senior MP Chris Bishop will lead the party’s campaign for the 2023 election.

The Taxpayers Union-Curia Research Poll, published on Thursday, had National gaining 3% from the month prior, to 37% support. The ACT Party also got a boost, by 1.9% to 12.4%.

If the 2023 election was to produce these numbers, National would have enough seats in the House to form a Government in coalition with its traditional partner, ACT – at 63 seats.

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The Labour Party had a marginal decline in support from the month prior, dropping 1.8% to 33.4%.

The Green Party had a slight gain, up 0.4% to 9.9%. The Māori Party dropped 2% to 1.5% – the party would again have to win an electorate seat to maintain a place in Parliament.

NZ First on 1.6% would similarly need to win an electorate to re-enter Parliament after being voted out in 2020.

With these numbers, a Labour-Green-Māori Party coalition would not have enough seats to govern, at 57 seats combined.

Each of these shifts in support were within the poll’s potential margin of error, 3.1%.

It’s been a tough winter, Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson says. And the Labour Party appears to be banking on a good summer giving it a polling boost.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

It’s been a tough winter, Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson says. And the Labour Party appears to be banking on a good summer giving it a polling boost.

Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson said there was “only one poll that counts, and that’s the one that’s done every three years”.

“This has been a hard winter … it has been tough with inflation. But as I’ve been saying, I really do believe that the green shoots are there, that we are heading towards a great summer in New Zealand, so we’ll just keep working hard.”

Luxon, who appeared to lose support amid a debate over a United States’ abortion ruling in July, had a 6.4% boost in his preferred prime minister ranking to 25.9%.

However, he lagged behind Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, at 36.5%.

Asked whether the country as “heading in the right direction”, 32% said it was, and 54% said the country was heading in the wrong direction. This was a “record low”, according to the pollsters.

National Party leader Christopher Luxon has had a boost in one poll.

Christel Yardley/Stuff

National Party leader Christopher Luxon has had a boost in one poll.

The cost of living continued to dominate the concerns of those polled, with 22% saying it was the most important issue. Following this was the economy, 15%, health, 7%, and housing, 4%.

Luxon, in a statement announcing Bishop’s appointment to party campaign chairman, said “New Zealand needs a National Government with the capability and competence to rebuild our economy”.

“Chris Bishop is a formidable talent and has the right mix of skills and relentless energy to chair our campaign for the 2023 general election.”

He said MP Dr Shane Reti would take on Bishop’s Covid-19 response portfolio.

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