By NAN Business Editor
News Americas, NEW YORK, NY, Thurs. Aug. 7, 2025: Despite a sluggish global outlook, several Caribbean economies are forecast to outperform their regional peers in 2025, according to new data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
ECLAC’s Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025, released Tuesday, projects a modest 2.2% average GDP growth rate for the Latin America and Caribbean region next year. However, a few Caribbean nations are defying the trend, with Guyana, Dominican Republic, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines emerging as bright spots amid concerns over slowing tourism demand and global economic headwinds.
Guyana Leads With Double-Digit Growth
Guyana continues to dominate regional growth projections, with GDP expected to surge by 10.3% in 2025, powered by robust investments in the country’s booming hydrocarbons sector. Following a staggering 43.6% expansion in 2024, Guyana’s momentum positions it as the fastest-growing economy in the hemisphere.
Dominican Republic and Saint Vincent Also Outperform
Following Guyana, the Dominican Republic is expected to post a 3.7% growth rate in 2025, driven by strong domestic demand, tourism resilience, and structural reforms.
Meanwhile, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is forecast to grow by 4.0%, placing it among the top five Caribbean performers. The island has benefitted from stable tourism recovery and targeted public investment.
Other Notable Performers
- Antigua and Barbuda: 3.5%
- Grenada: 3.5%
- Suriname: 3.2%
- Dominica: 2.5%
- Saint Lucia: 2.5%
- Barbados: 2.6%
These growth forecasts contrast sharply with larger regional economies like Jamaica (1.3%), Bahamas (1.8%), and Trinidad and Tobago (1.5%), which are projected to remain flat amid global uncertainty.
Tourism and Energy Costs Remain a Drag
The report warns that the overall Caribbean region, excluding Guyana, is expected to grow just 1.8% in 2025, a slowdown from 2.6% in 2024. This is largely due to lower GDP growth in the U.S. – the region’s largest tourism source market – along with persistent challenges like high energy and transport costs, and vulnerability to climate-related disasters.
The Outlier: Haiti and Cuba Face Contraction
Haiti and Cuba remain economic laggards. ECLAC projects Haiti’s GDP will shrink by -2.3% in 2025, following a -4.2% contraction in 2024, citing ongoing political instability and humanitarian crises. Cuba is also expected to contract by –1.5%, reflecting the island’s continued struggle with external financing, sanctions, and weak domestic output.
Looking Ahead
Despite the subdued regional outlook, ECLAC highlights that resource mobilization and policy innovation will be key to unlocking medium-term growth. Caribbean nations that diversify beyond tourism, invest in infrastructure, and harness energy transition opportunities are more likely to weather global volatility.
The report – released at a press conference led by the United Nations regional commission’s Executive Secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs – emphasizes that the estimates point to different dynamics among sub-regions and countries.
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