Booming China seems to be patiently playing the long game, unperturbed by Trump’s tariff threats which could ultimately punish US consumers
US President Donald Trump, never one to shy away from a headline-grabbing manoeuvre, announced on 21 January that he’s mulling a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, potentially set to take effect on 1 February.
This move, the latest salvo in the long-simmering trade spat between the world’s two largest economies, raised eyebrows and questions in equal measure.
The proposed tariffs, ostensibly aimed at pressuring Beijing into a more US-friendly trade posture, come against an ironic backdrop. China’s exports, including those to the US, have recently surged. This trend seems to contradict Trump’s intended goal of curbing Chinese economic influence.
During his re-election campaign, Trump upped the ante, threatening tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods. Such rhetoric fueled an already heated trade war but has yet to yield the intended concessions.
So, what’s driving Trump’s tariff threats now? Is it strategic posturing or simply an effort to reclaim economic leverage?
Clearly he is once again casting China as a central antagonist in America’s economic and social struggles. Accusing Beijing of fueling the fentanyl crisis by supplying precursor chemicals to the US’s neighbours, Trump framed the addiction epidemic as a consequence of lax border enforcement and international indifference.
The rhetoric didn’t stop there. Trump proposed a steep 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, accusing both countries of enabling illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking to the US.
In tandem, he unveiled plans for an “external revenue service” to centralise collection of tariffs and foreign-derived revenue — a move that signals his continued belief in tariffs as a lever of economic power.
Yet, the numbers paint a complex picture. By late 2024, Chinese exports to US companies had risen 4% year-over-year, highlighting Beijing’s resilience in the face of punitive trade measures. Meanwhile, the trade imbalance remains staggering. Chinese exports to the US reached $401 billion in 11 months in 2024, while American goods to China totalled just $131 billion.
Trump’s escalating accusations against China, combined with his ambitious tariff strategy, reflect a broader effort to realign global trade — though it remains unclear who will blink first in this high-stakes standoff.
In the chess game of global trade, tariffs are a double-edged sword and Donald Trump is no stranger to wielding them. His latest proposal to slap tariffs on all Chinese imports promises to target every product imaginable, from everyday essentials to niche industrial goods. While he touts this strategy as a way to protect American interests, the ripple effects could drive inflation higher, leaving US consumers to bear the burden.
Take ship-to-shore cranes, for instance — critical to US infrastructure and entirely imported from China. A 25% tariff on these cranes has already added $131 million in costs to American ports.
With no domestic alternatives, industries reliant on such imports find themselves trapped, unable to shift demand or dodge price hikes. It is a harsh reminder that protectionist policies often hit closer to home than intended.
Meanwhile, Beijing appears unfazed, playing a patient and calculated game. The Belt and Road Initiative and deeper partnerships with Brics nations are part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on the US market.
As China diversifies its trade network, its willingness to absorb the tariff hit seems increasingly unlikely. The question remains — how long can the US sustain this win-or-lose trade war before consumers and industries alike demand a new strategy? For now, the clock is ticking.
As Trump’s trade war escalates, American businesses are caught in an increasingly fraught search for alternatives to Chinese imports. This pursuit, however, is not easy.
Should the US extend its tariff policies to key trading partners like the EU, Canada and Mexico, import costs from these nations could also skyrocket, creating a ripple effect that leaves few affordable options on the table. Compounding the issue is the already sanctioned Russian market, further narrowing the pool of viable suppliers.
During the last tariff bout, levies on Canadian and Mexican steel drove domestic prices for iron and steel products up by as much as 17.7% in just eight months. The result? A zero-sum game for American consumers, who are left with two choices: higher costs or limited access to essential goods. Whether they are sourced from China or elsewhere, the burden ultimately lands squarely on their shoulders.
Amid rising tension, China’s economic resilience presents an uncomfortable truth for the US — the trade war is not turning the tide as intended. China’s broader trade figures are even more telling. December exports shattered records, rising 10.7% year-over-year. For all of 2024, Chinese exports totalled an astonishing $3.58 trillion, up nearly 6% from 2023. The result? A record trade surplus of $992 billion, a 21% leap from the prior year — a statistic as symbolic as it is staggering.
This upward trajectory underscores Beijing’s success in countering US policies. With unilateral tariffs and protectionist measures sowing distrust, China is actively diversifying its trade partners. Initiatives like the Belt and Road and strengthened ties with emerging economies bolster its independence from American markets.
While this temporary surge in trade benefits both economies in the short term, it reveals the volatility of a system increasingly beset by competition and discord. The long game, it seems, is being redefined — and not in Washington’s favour.
As Donald Trump prepared for his second inauguration ceremony, the White House facilitated a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping — a carefully orchestrated gesture of diplomacy. Xi expressed hope for a “good start” to the China-US relationship, emphasising the importance of respecting “each other’s core interests” despite inevitable differences.
For Beijing, the focus appears to remain internal. China seems unruffled by the return of Trump’s mercurial leadership. So far, the state media has adopted a measured tone, reflecting Beijing’s preference for a steady course over reacting to external unpredictability.
Apparently, China’s strategy is patient and deliberate. Recent interactions suggest a willingness to let Trump make the first move, matching his actions with calculated responses.
While the US enjoys advantages in many arenas, time favours China. With a four-year timeline limiting Trump’s ambitions, President Xi Jinping has the luxury of playing the long game.
Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan.
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