President-elect Donald Trump is projected to win the 2024 election, greatly weighted by overperformance among key voting blocs, not the least of which is among Hispanics and Latinos.
Trump gained six points of support from Hispanics over 2020, leaving Democrats single-digit favorites among the bloc, according to data compiled by the Financial Times and other outlets.
Trump flipped Miami-Dade County in Florida, one of the largest Latino communities in the nation, winning it by about 2% more than President Joe Biden did in 2020.
Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a Republican who represents the southern half of Miami plus the Keys, said it all comes down to “common sense” for Hispanics.
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“Hispanics are people of faith, family, hard work, searching for the American dream, and I think those are the values of the Republican Party” he told Fox News Digital.
“The Democrat Party has gone way left to the extreme left, almost to the point of socialism. And many of us fled our countries fleeing socialism. And so that doesn’t attract us,” said Gimenez, who is the only Cuban-born congressman.
The lawmaker predicted Republicans will only further grow their support among Hispanics and Latinos if trends in both parties continue.
In the Northeast, Trump overperformed in several areas — including those overall unfriendly to the GOP.
Bronx County, N.Y., which still handily re-elected Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., saw Trump earn 10% more of the vote there than in 2020. The Bronx is also a heavily-Hispanic borough.
Of the five boroughs — where only Richmond County, Staten Island, is Republican majority — Trump saw his biggest gains in Bronx County, which edged out Queens by a fraction of a percentage point. He made gains in every borough this year.
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Trump rallies in Bronx County, N.Y. (AP/Yuki Iwamura)
Westward along I-78, Trump’s coattails helped two Republican challengers in tough swing-district contests.
Both Reps. Matt Cartwright, D-Pa., in the Poconos and Susan Wild, D-Pa., in the Lehigh Valley, conceded their races Wednesday afternoon to Rob Bresnahan Jr., and state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, respectively. (However, the races still remain officially uncalled by the Associated Press as of Wednesday afternoon.)
Trump exceeded expectations in the collection of counties within both areas, as reported by the Financial Times and data from other news outlets.
Nearby, the typically voting-hesitant Amish reportedly surged for Trump in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. Former President George W. Bush was the only other presidential candidate this century to actively court their vote.
A source told the New York Post the anabaptist sect voted in “unprecedented numbers” and that many were energized by government raids on Upper Leacock Township dairy farmer Amos Miller, who was punished for raw milk sales, among other pressures.
Rep. Lloyd Smucker, R-Pa., who was born into the Old Order Amish sect, recently told Fox News Digital he saw energy moving Republicans’ way among the humble, hard-working group.
Asian-Americans demonstrated to be the bloc with the largest trend toward Trump this cycle.
In California, Los Angeles and Orange counties both saw single-digit trends in Trump’s direction — and both have sizeable Asian-American populations. Data showed a 12-point gain for Trump, leaving overall support in the teens in Democrats’ favor.
In fact, Republican margins increased in every state, plus the District of Columbia, except Washington and Utah.
Trump gained one percentage point over his 2020 numbers in the nation’s capital. Washington, D.C., however, awarded Trump his widest loss, at 7% to 92%.
California, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut and Mississippi saw the widest gains for Trump over his 2020 numbers, according to data. Pockets of support in blue Philadelphia also helped Trump this cycle.
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The two voting blocs where Trump lost support since 2020 were among White college-aged women and senior citizens. The 65 and older age group was evenly split, while the other demographic bloc leaned towards the Democrats by a margin of roughly 20 percentage points.
Bright spots for Democrats, where they gained marked support over Biden’s term, were in Jackson County, Missouri, home to Kansas City; Cambria County, Pennsylvania, home to Johnstown; and some suburban counties south of Atlanta and around Seattle.
Republicans also overperformed in the South Pacific, where all three U.S. territories will have GOP representation in Congress for the first time ever, according to Newsweek.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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