When will the federal election be called? Maybe this weekend

As election speculation hits a fever pitch, spare a thought for the public service. 

We’ve previously covered how the Australian media, including Crikey, is obsessed with guessing when the next election will be. News outlets reckon the prime minister threw out hints in question time this week, but perhaps the real clues lie elsewhere, for there is another class of Australians who are just as hung up on the guessing game: our federal bureaucrats. 

One senior bureaucrat told Crikey many in the public service predict the election will be called this weekend. The way their reasoning goes, there would be several advantages: by holding an election in late March or early April, the government would avoid having to hand down the budget it has scheduled for March — plus, the election campaign wouldn’t clash with the Easter and Anzac Day public holidays in late April. 

Another good reason would be the announcement would happen before February 18, when the Reserve Bank will make an interest rate decision. If the bank cuts the rate, it would give a nice, early boost to the government’s campaign — and by calling it beforehand, Labor would avoid accusations of openly capitalising on the rate cut (if the bank ends up cutting the rates, that is — this is pure speculation). 

Our public service source said this line of reasoning was partly informed by wishful thinking, because bureaucrats would have something to gain from an early election call as well. 

“We just want it called before Senate estimates,” the person said, going on to explain that while all the briefs for the grillings in Canberra have already been prepared, it would obviously be easier to just skip the whole affair. 

Former Australian Financial Review government editor Tom Burton said the public service often went through three phases ahead of an election.

“There tends to be a sort of slowing down in the last six to four months of a government, where the public service is watching and seeing what the government is trying to push and prioritise,” he told Crikey. “The second thing that happens is that, really from now on, public servants stop appearing in public and making statements. You’ll see them very much disappear and be careful. The third phase is when it goes into formal lockdown.”

While the public-facing work slows down, public servants tend to watch carefully what politicians say and do to try to figure out what will happen to agencies depending on who wins the election. With the increasing likelihood of a minority government, public servants will be closely watching what crossbenchers have to say as well, Burton said. 

“That makes it a bit extra tricky this year,” he said. 

Another aspect of the public service’s pre-poll rigamarole is the preparation of the so-called red and blue books, which are briefs for each possible incoming government bloc that spells out areas of policy, immediate priorities and election commitments. 

One former public servant said: “Otherwise, all work comes to a standstill because no significant decisions can be taken. Then you sit around and do nothing, by and large.”

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