It is a surprise to nobody who has watched college basketball over the last half-decade that Houston has looked like one of the most dominant teams in the country during the first weekend of the tournament. The Cougars have not lost a game in the first weekend of the tournament since 2018, and have an average margin of victory of over 20 points a game during the first weekend.
Kelvin Sampson deserves all the credit in the world for reviatilizing a dormant Houston program; however, more than just reviving a sleeping giant, he has an innate ability to get his guys to buy in. It can be easy for a heavy favorite to sleepwalk early in the tournament, just ask Jon Scheyer how he felt Duke’s energy looked in their first two games this weekend.
Houston can suffocate opponents with its defense. Many teams can lose focus on defense, but Sampson has his guys locked in from tip to buzzer. They hound ball handlers with relentless pressure. Unlike other teams that specialize in their elite defenses, Houston can turn their stops into points on the other end.
The Cougars are once again great at generating “Kill Shots”. A Kill Shot is a 10-0 that happens in a game. Houston was second in the country entering the tournament in kill shots with 38 on the season, while allowing only 11, good for fifth in the country. With that being said, the level of competition increases going into the Sweet 16, and they’ll be facing Illinois, a team that is third best in the country in adjusted Kill Shot margin.
Illinois is a bit underseeded as a three seed and will be the toughest matchup for any two seed entering the second weekend. The Illini have the second-best offensive rating in the country and can attack Houston’s interior with a ton of lengthy big men who can cause issues for Houston’s front court, which has dealt with foul issues. Illinois can also punish them at the line if they’re too aggressive, as they shoot 78.4% as a team, good for 13th in the country.
Houston has struggled at times this year to find consistent offense and can deal with scoring droughts. That cannot happen against Illinois, as they will bury Houston if they go multiple minutes without scoring.
It’ll be a tough matchup for Houston, but they’ll essentially be playing a road game, as the game will be at the Toyota Center, home of the Houston Rockets. Illinois has also struggled when they’re matched up with tough defenses. They are 2-4 this season against teams with a top-25 defensive rating, scoring only 74 points per game, 10 fewer than their season average.
Houston opens this game as 2.5-point favorites, and it doesn’t make a ton of sense. Neither team likes to speed the game up, and if Illinois can deal with Houston’s elite ball pressure, they could be in line to pull off the minor upset.
I really like Balkan Bloc on the road in the Sweet 16.
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