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Oil prices fell Monday morning after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would hold off on striking Iran’s energy infrastructure amid productive talks between the two countries.
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark, was trading under $90 US, down more than nine per cent, while stock markets jumped in early trading.
Trump said he was postponing strikes on Iranian power plants for five days after describing how both countries had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”
Oil prices have soared by about 50 per cent this month since the conflict in the Middle East began.
Trump’s latest statement is a sharp contrast from his comments over the weekend, when he threatened an escalation, warning on Truth Social that if Iran didn’t “fully open, without threat” the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours, the U.S. military would begin targeting Iranian power plants, “starting with the biggest.”
In a response statement broadcast by Iranian media, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would “completely close” the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. targets Iranian energy infrastructure.
Trump has outlined military objectives for the Iran war, including degrading or destroying Iran’s military, its defence infrastructure and its nuclear weapons program, in addition to protecting American allies in the region.
Energy prices have soared over the last three weeks as Iran has restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz, the geographic choke point through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil is exported, in addition to natural gas and other products.
“$200 a barrel is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026,” analysts at energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie have said based on a prolonged disruption of Gulf exports.
Whenever the conflict is resolved, “It will take a couple months to completely re-equalize the system,” said Kurt Barrow , an oil, fuels and chemicals analyst at S&P Global.
The energy crisis is “moving really into a demand or an availability crisis. We are short about 15 million barrels a day of not just crude, we are short jet fuel and diesel and will be short gasoline,” he said, in an interview with CBC News in Houston, on the sidelines of CERAWeek, a global energy conference.
The North American oil industry is largely in a holding pattern with so much uncertainty. If prices climb too high for too long, demand for oil could plunge in the event of a global recession and as fuels become unaffordable.
The oilpatch is “not as elated as you probably might think,” said Kevin Krausert, a former Alberta drilling executive, who is now CEO of Avatar Innovations, a clean energy accelerator and training initiative.
“No one is cracking the champagne. This is a very serious moment with a lot of implications for the global energy industry. There’s a period of seriousness around the responsibility that we have at this moment. But $120 oil for a prolonged period of time creates its own unique set of challenges for the industry,” said Krausert, in an interview with CBC News in Houston.
Trump’s post on social media about the strikes came as the war with Iran enters its fourth week.
Futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 2.6 per cent before the opening bell.
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