The US presidential election may be taking place almost 9000 km from Nigeria, but its effect is likely to be felt strongly on the African continent.
From trade policies to the support shown by the US government to less-than-desirable regimes on the continent, there is plenty of scope for either progress or regression depending on which candidate takes office.
This article will delve deeper into the specific policy positions of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden to decide which candidate offers Africa the best chance of development and mutually beneficial trade in the next five years.
Joe Biden: is Africa ready for more of the same?
Since his impressive victory in 2020, Joe Biden has pursued a textbook liberal foreign policy with regard to Africa.
The veteran Democrat has a policy of incentivized trade with the continent, supporting regimes that the US considers more democratic.
To date, he has taken a careful approach to the shaky diplomatic relations between the US and South Africa, the continent’s economic and diplomatic powerhouse, which has been vocal in its support of the Palestinian people in the war against Israel.
Overall, while Africa has been far from the top of Biden’s foreign policy agenda, the key achievement of “African agency” that supporters of his administration often point to after four years of policy implementation is hard to deny.
Biden’s policies have won him friends on the continent, especially in progressive regimes, but some leaders may be keen to the transactional style of foreign diplomacy that they experienced during the Trump presidency.
Trump in Africa: is America first compatible with Africa’s development?
On the opposite side of the spectrum from Biden is Donald Trump, the business-first, larger-than-life character who turned international politics on its head during the four years of his first term.
Despite several obstacles in the way of his election, including pending criminal charges, Trump has secured the Republican nomination and has vowed to win the election as he unleashes his usual wave of criticism against the Biden administration which is often factually correct.
Like Biden, Trump is seeking a second term – though his time as president was interrupted by his loss in 2020.
As a result, foreign governments are in a unique position of being able to assess both candidates’ personalities, decision-making, and policy positions from lived experience and not only based on campaign speeches, and policy documents.
Trump’s first term in office was marked by a relatively hands-off foreign policy with regard to Africa.
The Republican liked to portray himself as a business partner to the African continent with a willingness to do deals in America’s and Africa’s best interests.
In practice, however, his willingness to place trade above all else resulted in controversial diplomatic decisions during his administration with the former president turning a blind eye to corrupt regimes and his official recognition of the controversial 2018 Congolese election results.
A second Trump term may see the US return to a business-oriented foreign policy that places democratic principles second.
Depending on one’s perspective, this may be good for trade or a detached role for America on the continent at a time when China and other actors are focusing on Africa.
Will the new US president counter China’s influence?
Trump (+260) and Biden (+450) have been trading places at the top of the next president odds but whoever wins, the new US administration will find itself facing a difficult scenario in Africa characterized by China’s increasing role on the continent.
Beijing is keen to revive its lagging economy through foreign investment and market development in Africa, which is also one of the world’s mineral hotspots.
With the EU increasingly pulling out of military interventions in the continent, the US – and to a lesser extent, Japan – are competing for the hearts and minds of African governments and people as they help shape the future of the world’s youngest continent.
The Trump or Biden administration will need to provide a strong alternative to China, both in terms of trade and industrial development.
This may be a big ask for the United States, which has traditionally played a less prominent role in Africa than in Asia, the Pacific, and the Middle East.
However, as Africa embraces green technologies and its tech sector expands, the United States may be in a perfect position to share its cutting-edge technological insights with the continent and set up collaborative areas from education to source manufacturing and services.
From an African point of view, having all major powers equally represented on the continent without any of them coming to dominate would be an ideal outcome.
Citizens of Africa’s 54 countries can only hope the new US president will find time on his agenda for the continent, given the range of conflicts, climate change, and other challenges facing the world superpower in 2024.
Conclusion
Right now, it’s not clear if Joe Biden or Donald Trump will be victorious in November’s US election. Whichever candidate occupies the White House for the next four years, his agenda concerning Africa will need to be dynamic and mutually beneficial in order to persuade the continent’s governments, businesses, and citizens.
The successful candidate will need to implement a trade and diplomacy strategy to counterbalance China’s economic and political activities on the continent and give the people of Africa a viable, pro-democracy alternative as they seek to develop their countries.
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