Interest rates expected to rise in first RBA decision of 2023
The first cash rate decision of the year will suck up most of the oxygen in an otherwise quiet week for economic data.
The Reserve Bank board is broadly expected to hike interest rates by another 25 basis points on Tuesday, taking the cash rate to 3.35%.
Nomura Australia economist Andrew Ticehurst said another rate hike by the US Federal Reserve – albeit a smaller quarter-point increase – and likely cash rate increases by other major central banks supported the case for another RBA hike in February.
And underlying inflation, which excludes large price rises and falls, was surprisingly strong in the December quarter, lifting 6.9% annually.
Looking back at RBA communications in December, Ticehurst said the central bank alluded to more rate hikes “over the period ahead”.
Ultimately, we think the governor is attempting to balance cooling growth against uncomfortably high inflation and the risk of a break-out in wages and inflation expectations.
But equally, the RBA appears very keen to avoid recession, and naturally, would not wish to be ‘blamed’ for delivering one.
Nomura analysts anticipate another 25bp lift, and that a larger hike is more probable than a pause.
Deloitte Access Economics has called for the central bank to pause and assess the impact of its rate hikes so far, or risk tightening conditions too far.
Recent testimony from the RBA at a federal parliament cost-of-living inquiry leaves room for doubt.
“What we can say is that we think the peak in inflation was at the end of 2022 – at around 8% – and that inflation will begin to ease over the course of this year,” economic analysis chief Marion Kohler said on Wednesday.
– AAP
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Wilson waits on rematch chance after boxing “sabotage”
Australian boxer Liam Wilson is hanging out for a rematch against Emanuel Navarette for the World Boxing Organisation strap if his protest is upheld.
Wilson described the match as a “piss take” after his controversial defeat at Arizona’s Desert Diamond Arena on Friday night.
His team have claimed Wilson was “robbed” after the Mexican favourite was allowed 27 seconds to recover from a trademark left hook that floored him in the fourth round.
Navarrete, unbeaten since 2012 in 31 fights, then roared back to win an 11th world title fight in a third division via a ninth-round stoppage.
Those extra 17 seconds after the knock down were life-altering for the unheralded Wilson, whose victory on US debut would have been at least equal to the shock world title upsets by Jeff Horn five years ago and Jeff Harding nearly 30 years before that.
It followed a bizarre weigh-in drama on Thursday when Wilson was found to be about 2kg lighter than he had expected to be when the combatants stood on the scales.
Navarrete snuck just under the 59kg super featherweight limit, leading to accusations of cheating and scale tampering to ensure the Top Rank star made weight.
For more on this story, read the full report on Guardian Sport.
State school abuse victims to be included in Victorian apology
Victim-survivors of child sexual abuse at Victorian public schools will be included in a formal apology to state parliament, following fresh calls since the death and funeral last week of Cardinal George Pell.
The Victorian government’s apology to children abused in institutional care, slated for later this year, will recognise those who suffered harm in state schools, the premier, Daniel Andrews, confirmed on Sunday.
A formal apology on behalf of the government was promised late last year as part of a redress scheme for people who suffered abuse or neglect while at Victorian orphanages, children’s homes and missions from 1928 to 1990.
When announced, the Andrews government said the apology would be directed at “survivors of all forms of abuse in institutional settings”.
But it did not specifically reference victim-survivors from state schools, who are covered by a federal redress scheme.
Andrews denied they were originally excluded from the apology.
If there has been any confusion or if there’s been a sense by any of those victim-survivors or their carers, families, advocates that they were not included in the spirit of the apology … then I’m very sorry about that.
Former premier Steve Bracks issued a formal apology to a cohort dubbed “Forgotten Australians” in 2006, while a national apology recognised institutional sex abuse victims and survivors in 2018 following a royal commission.
But Victoria remains one of the few Australians jurisdictions yet to formally apologise to sexual abuse survivors from government schools, with former Justice party MP Stuart Grimley calling for that to change last year.
On Monday, Andrews will meet with several government school abuse survivors, including former Beaumaris primary school student Glen Fearnett who was allegedly abused by a teacher in the 1970s.
They’ve told their story, they’ve advocated and I’m looking forward to hearing from them.
It’s only through listening, and then acting and believing victim-survivors that we can hope to make sure that we don’t see a repeat of this evil sort of behaviour.
A date for the apology and its exact wording will be led by consultation with victim-survivors, the premier said.
If you find yourself struggling and need support, contract Lifeline on 13 11 14 and beyondblue on 1300 22 4636.
– AAP
That’s not how you make carbonara
In this age of culture wars and disinformation, there are a few subjects that truly threaten to destroy friendships, divide nations and whip up internet controversy.
One of them is the humble carbonara.
The New York Times took a brave stand last week when it posted an alleged carbonara recipe that contained tomatoes on social media – and was immediately met with outrage from Italians, foodies and foodie Italians.
The responses were fast and furious with some posting Sopranos memes joking the proposed spin on the Italian classic should be a crime and others saying it “looked tasty” but plainly was not carbonara.
The chief complaint among the purists was that the controversial addition violated the basic purity of a dish that is composed of five ingredients: pasta, egg, pecorino, guanciale and black pepper.
Guanciale is an Italian cured meet that can be difficult to source, so substitution with a more easily available alternative like pancetta is acceptable – when desperate.
As the Sydney Morning Herald notes in its deep-dive into the subject, carbonara is one of the most bastardised recipes in existence with cooks addition cream, garlic and now, tomatoes.
Defenders of the dish often respond that it’s fine to experiment – just don’t pretend like it’s carbonara.
It is also not the first time people have fought over the proper way to make the classic – there are plenty of videos available online of Italian chefs reacting to popular videos of cooks making carbonara badly.
Record turnout for Midsumma pride march in Melbourne
The Midsumma pride march has kicked off in St Kilda, with organisers reporting there are record numbers in attendance.
Opening the event was the premier, Daniel Andrews, who walked with his wife Catherine and the minister for equality, Harriet Shing:
Pride isn’t just a march.
It’s a demonstration – of love, of solidarity, and that there’s still more to do.
And we’ll be with you, every step of the way. pic.twitter.com/TGsUdTpWrF
— Dan Andrews (@DanielAndrewsMP) February 5, 2023
Independents Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel are also marching:
Octopus DNA offers glimpse into climate past – and future
Deep in the DNA of an Antarctic octopus, scientists may have uncovered a major clue about the future fate of the continent’s ice sheet – raising fears global heating could soon set off runaway melting.
Climate scientists have been struggling to work out if the ice sheet collapsed completely during the most recent “interglacial” period about 125,000 years ago, when global temperatures were similar to today.
The ice sheet holds enough water to raise sea levels by 3 to 4 metres with fears that global heating could soon push it towards runaway melting that would lock-in rising sea levels over centuries.
In an ingenious approach, a team of 11 scientists – including biologists, geneticists, glaciologists, computer scientists and ice-sheet modellers – looked at the genetics of Turquet’s octopus – a species that has been living around the Antarctic continent for about 4m years.
Genetic samples were taken from 96 octopuses collected over three decades from around the continent.
The octopus DNA carries a memory of its past, including how and when different populations were moving and mixing together, exchanging genetic material.
The scientists say they detected clear signs that, about 125,000 years ago, some octopus populations on opposite sides of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet had mixed together, with the only likely route being a seaway between the south Weddell Sea and the Ross Sea.
“That could only have happened if the ice sheet had completely collapsed,” said Dr Sally Lau, a geneticist at James Cook University who led the research.
For more on this story, read the full report by Guardian Australia environment reporter Graham Readfearn.
Unclaimed Sydney airport luggage goes up for auction
A hedge trimmer, a circular saw and a sun lounge are among the more unusual items up for sale in Sydney airport’s revived lost property auction over the next week.
A frequent flyer’s loss will be a bargain hunter’s gain when the online auction for charity returns after a two-year break because of Covid.
Starting on Sunday the auction features more than 3,000 unclaimed items including 120 laptops, more than 20 phones and tablets, dozens of headphones, 16 cameras, sunglasses, handbags, jewellery, wine, perfume and an air fryer.
The auction runs until 12 February, with bids starting at $5 and proceeds going to the Bayside Women’s Shelter.
Sydney airport says its lost property auctions have raised more than $1.4m for charity since 2013.
Airport CEO Geoff Culbert said there was “a treasure trove” of goods to pick from.
We even got some rather unique sales like a hedge trimmer, circular saw, and sun lounge, although we’re still scratching our heads wondering how that ended up at the airport.
For music lovers there is a classical violin or for those who just like to listen there are more than a dozen Bluetooth speakers as well as a record player and 50th anniversary edition of Abbey Road on vinyl.
Bayside Women’s Shelter general manager Sallianne Faulkner said the charity would use the proceeds to develop and fund a new social enterprise hub, working together with the community to break the cycle of domestic and family violence.
Sydney Airport’s ongoing support will allow us to open a community hub including a cafe, which will provide women with skills development, training and paid work to help set them up for the future.
– AAP
Interest rates expected to rise in first RBA decision of 2023
The first cash rate decision of the year will suck up most of the oxygen in an otherwise quiet week for economic data.
The Reserve Bank board is broadly expected to hike interest rates by another 25 basis points on Tuesday, taking the cash rate to 3.35%.
Nomura Australia economist Andrew Ticehurst said another rate hike by the US Federal Reserve – albeit a smaller quarter-point increase – and likely cash rate increases by other major central banks supported the case for another RBA hike in February.
And underlying inflation, which excludes large price rises and falls, was surprisingly strong in the December quarter, lifting 6.9% annually.
Looking back at RBA communications in December, Ticehurst said the central bank alluded to more rate hikes “over the period ahead”.
Ultimately, we think the governor is attempting to balance cooling growth against uncomfortably high inflation and the risk of a break-out in wages and inflation expectations.
But equally, the RBA appears very keen to avoid recession, and naturally, would not wish to be ‘blamed’ for delivering one.
Nomura analysts anticipate another 25bp lift, and that a larger hike is more probable than a pause.
Deloitte Access Economics has called for the central bank to pause and assess the impact of its rate hikes so far, or risk tightening conditions too far.
Recent testimony from the RBA at a federal parliament cost-of-living inquiry leaves room for doubt.
“What we can say is that we think the peak in inflation was at the end of 2022 – at around 8% – and that inflation will begin to ease over the course of this year,” economic analysis chief Marion Kohler said on Wednesday.
– AAP
Questions about ongoing recovery of social security debts
The third block of hearings at the Robodebt royal commission has just finished up with extraordinary revelations about how government officials sought to avoid public scrutiny of the program.
One question that will follow is how much has changed?
Welfare advocate Tom Studans says he has been sent a current copy of a debt letter that is now being used to alleged debts against people on social security – and has raised some reasonable questions about the lack of information that is still inherent to the process.
Interesting development: I’m now in possession of Centrelink’s current debt letters, having incurred a small overpayment regarding an advance I hadn’t finished repaying when I went off JobSeeker.
These are accounts payable. It’s an invoice. It’s not a debt notice…#RobodebtRC pic.twitter.com/zwbOfgZeQ8
— Tom Studans (@maximumwelfare) February 4, 2023
There’s no information here on how the debt was calculated.
There is no further information on calculation available on your Centrelink account as described.
Even in accepting this is money I owe, how do I know it wasn’t averaged? How do I know Centrelink knows?#RobodebtRC pic.twitter.com/6sDEZ8SkLy
— Tom Studans (@maximumwelfare) February 4, 2023
Lord’s Prayer to be replaced in Victorian parliament
As Victorian parliament returns for 2023, MPs will once again rise to hear the Lord’s Prayer regardless of their religious beliefs.
But days appear numbered for the longstanding tradition.
The Andrews Labor government made an election promise to workshop a replacement for the Lord’s Prayer at the start of this term.
The commitment was brokered after crossbencher Fiona Patten pitched a motion in 2021 to replace the prayer in the upper house with a moment of silent reflection, a move backed by some religious figures.
Patten, an atheist, lost her upper house seat but has initiated a petition to encourage people to write to the premier, Daniel Andrews, and attorney general Jaclyn Symes to honour their promise.
More than 20 local councillors last week sent a letter to the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission, Andrews and other ministers calling for rules to prevent councils from starting meetings with single-faith prayers.
Both houses of Victoria’s parliament have opened each sitting day with the Lord’s Prayer since 1918, but it has been recited alongside an acknowledgment of country in recent years.
The ACT lower house replaced the Christian prayer with an invitation to pray or reflect in 1995.
– AAP
Nurses union launches NSW election ad campaign
Nurses and midwives are ramping up their pre-election campaign to install staff-to-patient ratios in NSW public hospitals, with a series of TV ads.
After four statewide strikes last year, the NSW Nurses and Midwives’ Association says it is targeting candidates of all political stripes to back shift-by-shift ratios amid chronic understaffing.
Association general secretary Shaye Candish said the ad campaign, which urges people to “vote like your life depends on it, because one day it might”, puts health and wellbeing front of mind for voters.
We have lost far too many experienced nurses and midwives because NSW is the last mainland state yet to commit to nurse and midwife to patient ratios.
It’s beyond abhorrent, it’s shameful. NSW should be leaders in this space but instead we are being left behind.
Candish said following talks with nurses and midwives across NSW, it was apparent they are fatigued and burnt out, feeling stressed and constantly worried they are letting their patients down.
Nurses and midwives are being overworked, meaning they are responsible for too many patients and can’t safely care for our communities the way they were professionally trained, and our public health system is buckling under the pressure as a result.
Patients are being forced to wait too long to receive treatment in hospitals and this is having a ripple effect through the public health system.
She said there was growing peer-reviewed evidence to show safe staffing ratios saved lives, improved patient health outcomes and saved governments money.
– AAP
Katharine Murphy
Voice debate won’t affect government’s policy agenda, Albanese says
Anthony Albanese gets a third and last question: Will the voice debate preoccupy the government too much this year? Will it distort considerations of government?
The prime minister says no, the government is going full tilt on its policy agenda – childcare, national reconstruction fund, cost of living.
He says the government’s agenda of economic, environmental and social reform is very broad “but at the same time, how about we get this done as well”.
With that, the prime minister is swept out of the room.
Katharine Murphy
At the National Press Club, the second question to the prime minister is about legislating the body versus taking the constitutional route.
Anthony Albanese says the people who are now championing legislating the body failed to do so when they were in government. (That gets a chuckle in the room.)
He says there is no need for another constitutional convention because there has been so much preparatory work done on constitutional recognition over the past decade.
I sincerely hope we can get as much support across the political spectrum as we can, but I make this point, I get the same vote as everybody else. This is something that has come from the bottom up and we are going to give people a vote.
Katharine Murphy
Voice will have no effect on Indigenous sovereignty: Albanese
In Canberra, Anthony Albanese has finished his speech and we are now in a period of questions.
The first one is about sovereignty. This has been a significant issue over the summer, with the Greens senator Lidia Thorpe expressing concern that the voice might impact First Nations sovereignty.
“The vote and referendum will have no impact on the issue of sovereignty,” the prime minister says.
He says Chief Justice Robert French of the high court has made this point clear as has the expert legal reference group.
NSW Labor opposition leader to outline election pitch
Labor Leader Chris Minns will speak to a crowd of party faithful in the battleground seat of Penrith on Sunday, at NSW Labor’s unofficial campaign launch, ahead of the NSW election on 25 March.
The rally will take place in the key western Sydney seat of Penrith, currently held by Liberal MP Stuart Ayres on a margin of 1.3%.
It comes after a difficult few days for the government, including the release of a scathing auditor general’s report criticising its handling of a bushfire recovery grants scheme.
The scheme saw former deputy premier John Barilaro’s office interfering to effectively exclude Labor-held electorates from receiving funds, the auditor-general found.
Minns said emergency funds should not be handed out with people’s political preferences in mind.
I would have thought common decency would have stepped in long ago and no government would manipulate a process to see a community recover.
Unfortunately, that’s what happens when a group of people have been in power for 12 years.
The premier, Dominic Perrottet, said he would consider possible improvements in light of the report, but denied the funding arrangements were pork barrelling.
Labor will hold a formal campaign launch two weeks out from polling day.
– AAP
Eden Gillespie
NSW premier quizzed about auditor generals report
The NSW premier was also asked about the auditor general’s report which found the process for fast-tracked bushfire recovery grants “lacked integrity”.
The report found thresholds set by the former NSW deputy premier John Barilaro’s office effectively excluded Labor electorates from urgent funding in an “inconsistent and poorly documented” black summer grants program.
NSW premier Dominic Perrottet’s response:
I made it very clear when I became premier through an independent review in relation to grants administration in our state, we adopted all of those recommendations. There should be no politics being played in the administration of grants anywhere in this country. I completely support that.
Perrottet said he had made changes, including amendments to the ministerial code of conduct, to ensure funds “go to where they’re needed”.
Katharine Murphy
Albanese addresses National Press Club
Anthony Albanese is on his feet at the National Press Club after getting a standing ovation from the crowd gathered at the Chifley Research Centre conference. (You’d expect the warm welcome – this audience is party faithful.)
We have a news story this morning previewing this speech.
The prime minister is using this outing to put the voice referendum in the context of democratic decay. He’s basically arguing there are a number of citizens in democracies around the world that feel alienated from political parties and governments.
Albanese says the voice referendum will be an opportunity to bring people in, to give Australians the opportunity to shape and modernise the constitution. He says in an era of populism, misinformation and insurrection, prime ministers have to both include and trust the people.
Quite interesting: that context.
Eden Gillespie
NSW treasurer blames Labor for reopening Pep-11 gas project
NSW’s press conference has now turned to the subject of the controversial Pep-11 gas exploration license.
Guardian Australia revealed on Saturday that Sydney MP, Alex Greenwich, and a coalition of independent political candidates, were attempting to kill Pep-11 by banning the development of the area through a change in NSW law.
It comes after the federal government and Asset Energy agreed to void the former prime minister Scott Morrison’s decision to block further exploration of the gas field before it played out in court.
The NSW treasurer, Matt Kean, told reporters on Sunday that teal federal MPs had failed to stop the Labor government from “reopening the threat of offshore drilling on our coastline on the northern beaches and central coast”.
The only way people living on the northern beaches on the central coast can stop the destruction of our coastline and drilling for offshore gas is by voting for your Liberal National candidate.
We’ve seen that the teals are absolutely ineffective when it comes to protecting our coastal marine parks from the threat of Pep -11.
Eden Gillespie
NSW Liberals promise help with energy bills if re-elected
In their biggest election promise to date, the NSW government says it will give households $250 to spend on energy bills if residents compare plans through the Service NSW website.
The measure will be rolled out on 1 July if the Liberal party wins the NSW election next month and will apply to everyone, including those already on a rebate.
The one-off cost-of-living payment will be given even if NSW households do not change providers, premier Dominic Perrottet said.
This will make a real difference to household budgets across New South Wales and [it’s] part of the Liberals and Nationals’ long-term economic plan to provide support for families and keep New South Wales moving.
The treasurer and minister for energy, Matt Kean, said the plan was “all about ensuring that we help people ease pressure on household budgets”.
The NSW Energy Bill Saver initiative is estimated to cost $500m with two million households expected to participate.
A journalist has asked the NSW premier if the $250 energy bill payment is “a drop in the bucket” and an election “ploy” to “make it look” like the government is addressing cost-of-living pressures.
Perrottet’s response:
We’re making it easy to switch [energy plans] but most importantly, easy to save for families across western Sydney and right across our great state … There is no government anywhere in the country that has the cost-of-living relief and the support for family budgets in the Liberals and Nationals here in New South Wales.
Albanese speaks on Indigenous voice to parliament
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is due to begin his speech at the Chifley Research Centre where he is expected to outline why he is optimistic about the potential for success in the upcoming referendum on the Indigenous voice to parliament.
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