Russia in recent months has made battlefield gains in some pockets of Ukraine, leading to new calls for Ukraine to relinquish territory as part of negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But CIA director William Burns on Monday told Senators that Russia has no desire to negotiate beyond “theater.”
More importantly, Burns said, if the United States can pass a months-delayed supplemental spending bill, Ukraine could “put itself in a position to negotiate from a position of greater strength.”
Since the fall, U.S. President Joe Biden has been pushing Congress to pass a nearly $100 billion security aid package, which includes more than $60 billion in supplemental funding for Ukraine.
Said Burns: “It’s our assessment that with supplemental assistance, Ukraine can hold its own on the front lines through 2024 and into early 2025, [and] that Ukraine can continue to exact costs against Russia. Not only with the penetration and strikes in Crimea, but also against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, continuing this success which has resulted in 15 Russian ships sunk over the course of the last six months.”
That could allow Ukraine to “regain the offensive initiative, he said.
House Republicans have stalled the package. Additional aid has been flowing to Ukraine from other European partners. But, Burns said, “without supplemental assistance, it seems to me, lies a much grimmer future. Ukraine is likely to lose ground and probably significant ground in 2024.”
Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, echoed that sentiment.
“Without that assistance, it is hard to imagine how Ukraine will be able to maintain the extremely hard-fought advances it has made against the Russians, especially given the sustained surge in Russian ammunition production and purchases from North Korea and Iran. And meanwhile, President Putin is increasing defense spending and Russia is reversing his long-standing reluctance to devote a high-percentage of GDP to the military as he looks to rebuild.”
Burns said a perceived loss in Ukraine would convince China that the U.S. is an unreliable partner to its friends, and encourage China to bully neighbors and possibly attack Taiwan.
“If we’re seen to be walking away from support for Ukraine, not only is that going to feed doubts amongst our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, it’s going to stoke the ambitions of the Chinese leadership in contingencies ranging from Taiwan to the South China Sea. So that’s what I saw on this last visit. That’s what I think is at stake for all of us. I think the truth is that the Ukrainians are not running out of courage and tenacity. They’re running out of ammunition, and we’re running out of time to help them.”
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