Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on the road again. He landed in Turkey yesterday for the start of his fourth trip to the region since the October 7 Hamas terror attacks. He met with Turkish tyrant Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Foreign Minister, attempting to negotiate for Turkish participation in the reconstruction of Gaza and a potential, neutral security role in the region when the war concludes. Blinken will be returning to several other countries this week as he attempts to hammer out a deal to prevent the war from escalating even further. We really need to give Blinken credit for at least trying to stay busy, unlike his boss in the White House who rarely comes off of vacation and only infrequently leaves the basement when he does. But what prospects are there for Turkey to be a willing partner in this effort? (Associated Press)
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken kicked off his latest urgent Middle East diplomatic mission in Turkey on Saturday, as fears mount that Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza may explode into a broader conflict.
Blinken’s fourth visit in three months comes amid worrying developments outside of Gaza, including in Lebanon, northern Israel, the Red Sea and Iraq, that have put intense strains on what had been a modestly successful U.S. push to prevent a regional conflagration in the weeks after the war began, and growing international criticism of Israel’s military operation.
Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to discuss what Turkey and others can do to exert influence, particularly on Iran and its proxies, to ease soaring tensions, speed up humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza and begin in earnest to plan for reconstruction and governance of postwar Gaza, much of which has been reduced to rubble by three months of intense Israeli bombardments.
If Blinken does somehow manage to work out a deal with Turkey it will be a feather in his cap. Erdogan has been one of the loudest and harshest critics among NATO members of how Israel is handling the war in Gaza, though he has at least stopped short of accusing Netanyahu of war crimes for the time being. (Why Turkey is still in NATO is a mystery that can be addressed again at a later date.)
It’s not that Turkey couldn’t productively contribute to the effort if they wanted to. They have one of the largest militaries in the region and plenty of resources. And though their economy hit some rocky times through the pandemic, they have bounced back strongly since last year. If they were willing to send in some construction crews to help rebuild the Strip, the locals would probably look at them as more of a neutral force on their lands, or at least not as objectionable as Israel. How much, if anything Erdogan might be willing to cooperate remains to be seen.
Blinken headed to Greece (a traditional foe of Turkey) for similar talks. After that, his whirlwind trip took him to Jordan. Today and tomorrow he will make stops in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia before visiting Israel and Egypt. As I said, he’s definitely keeping busy. And to give credit where due, his recent trip to Mexico actually produced some positive, if modest results. But the task facing him now is far more complicated and delicate. Not all of our supposed allies get along all of the time and some (like Turkey) are far less supportive of Israel than others. Getting them all pulling on the same rope is going to be a challenge.
I’ll be the first to admit that the United States should be playing a leading role in figuring out how to proceed in Gaza after Hamas is destroyed, no matter how much the locals hate us (and Israel). These past three months of war have once again demonstrated what a destabilizing effect any war in that region can have on the entire world, not just the Middle East. But we should also be mindful not to appear as if we’re dictating the terms. Our relations with a number of Arab nations have improved a bit in recent years (or at least they were improving until Biden took over), but most of them still don’t fully trust us. A widespread Middle Eastern war would be a disaster for all involved and the United States clearly has a role in preventing that. If Blinken can manage to pull this off, I will doff my hat and give him credit, a rare opportunity during the Biden administration. Best of luck, Mr. Secretary.
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