Indonesia’s ambitious US$8.1 billion deal to procure 42 Rafale multirole fighter jets from France has hit turbulence amid shocking allegations of the aircraft’s underperformance in recent India-Pakistan hostilities. Reports claiming that three Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafales were shot down by Pakistan’s J-10C jets using PL-15E beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles have triggered concern among Indonesia’s top defence planners.
Though the claims remain unverified, they have prompted Indonesia’s Ministry of Defence to quietly initiate a review of the Rafale’s operational credibility. With the first batch of Rafales set to arrive in early 2026, officials in Jakarta now face a sensitive but critical decision—whether to press forward, pause, or pivot.
Signed in 2022, the Rafale deal marked Indonesia’s most significant leap in modernising its air force since the 1990s. The agreement includes both single- and twin-seat variants, armed with advanced radar, weapons systems, and the capability for precision strikes and strategic deterrence.
However, news that Pakistan may have shot down three Rafales in a recent flare-up with India has cast a shadow over the jet’s combat reputation. According to Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) neutralized five Indian aircraft during an aerial skirmish—three Rafales, one MiG-29, and one Su-30MKI. The fighters were reportedly brought down by J-10C jets armed with the PL-15E missile, a next-generation Chinese BVR weapon with a range exceeding 200 kilometers.
While New Delhi has yet to officially confirm or deny the losses, Indian Air Marshal A.K. Bharti’s remark—“We are in a war scenario. Losses are expected in combat”—has only fueled speculation. France’s Dassault Aviation, the Rafale’s manufacturer, has also remained publicly silent. Still, sources quoted by international media suggest that Paris is conducting an internal probe involving radar logs, telemetry, and imagery analysis to determine the veracity of the reports.
In Jakarta, the development has not gone unnoticed.
Dave Laksono, a senior member of Indonesia’s Commission I—which oversees defence and foreign affairs—responded with caution but acknowledged that the allegations cannot be ignored. “Unverified claims in conflict zones cannot be used as the sole basis for assessing the effectiveness or failure of a particular weapons system,” Laksono told reporters.
He went on to stress that even top-tier aircraft like the F-16, F/A-18, and F-22 have suffered losses in complex combat conditions. “Therefore, the performance of the Rafale cannot be measured by just one incident that has not even been fully confirmed.”
Yet, he conceded that the reports warrant “legitimate and constructive” operational reassessment, especially given that the Rafale’s battlefield credibility has long been a key selling point in securing regional support for the procurement.
Until now, the Rafale has enjoyed a stellar reputation in international arms markets. It is widely considered one of the most balanced 4.5-generation fighter jets, offering superior agility, integrated electronic warfare capabilities, and the ability to carry out both nuclear and conventional missions.
Deployed in Libya, Mali, and Syria, the Rafale’s combat track record has mostly been limited to air-to-ground operations in asymmetric warfare settings. What it lacks, critics argue, is proof of survivability and effectiveness in peer-to-peer air combat—like that seen in India-Pakistan confrontations or potential East Asian conflicts.
The alleged shootdowns—if confirmed—would be the first known Rafale losses in air-to-air combat and could fundamentally alter its perceived deterrence value.
This would be a major blow to France, which has aggressively marketed the Rafale across Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Dassault’s stock fell nearly 10% in five days following the reports, and defence analysts now warn that prospective buyers could begin to second-guess their procurement strategies.
Indonesia is not just buying fighter jets—it is redefining its defence doctrine. The acquisition of Rafales is part of a broader plan to shift from a territorial defence posture to a flexible, network-centric airpower model. With mounting tensions in the South China Sea, the ability to rapidly project airpower across the archipelago and beyond is central to Jakarta’s vision.
The planned basing of Rafales at Roesmin Nurjadin Airbase in Riau and Supadio in West Kalimantan underscores their strategic role in maritime surveillance and deterrence against encroachment in Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
A sudden re-evaluation of the Rafale platform could throw a wrench into these plans.
“We cannot afford to induct a system that performs well only on paper,” said a TNI-AU source who requested anonymity. “We need combat credibility, not brochure promises.”
India, meanwhile, is grappling with its own crisis of credibility. The 2016 Rafale deal with France—worth an estimated US$8.8 billion—was hailed as a breakthrough in closing the IAF’s widening capability gap. Each Indian Rafale was customized with state-of-the-art radar, Israeli helmet-mounted displays, Meteor BVR missiles, and SCALP air-to-ground cruise missiles.
By 2025, the per-unit cost of these aircraft had climbed to nearly US$290 million when factoring in logistics, weapons, and maintenance—a staggering figure for a country already managing tight defence budgets.
The Indian government further cemented its Rafale dependency with a US$7.4 billion deal signed in April 2025 for 26 Rafale Marine variants. These jets, tailored for carrier operations, are slated to become the mainstay of airpower aboard the INS Vikrant.
The latest combat losses—whether exaggerated or not—strike at the heart of India’s defence narrative. For a jet marketed as a technological equalizer against Pakistan’s growing Chinese-supplied arsenal, such losses raise hard questions.
If Pakistan’s version of events holds true, it would signal a dramatic shift in South Asia’s airpower balance. The J-10C is a Chinese-built fourth-generation-plus fighter equipped with AESA radar, low-observable design features, and the formidable PL-15E missile.
PAF officials have been quick to frame the engagement as a victory of tactics, not just hardware. Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed stated: “It’s not that Rafale is a bad plane. The Rafale is a very potent aircraft—if employed well.” His remarks suggest that superior tactics, training, and networked warfare, not just platform capability, tilted the engagement in Pakistan’s favour.
This underscores a broader truth of modern aerial warfare: air combat supremacy is increasingly determined by pilot skill, real-time data integration, and effective command-and-control systems rather than platform prestige alone.
Defence experts across Asia are divided. Some argue that Indonesia should wait for concrete evidence before drawing conclusions, while others believe Jakarta should at least delay the deal’s implementation pending further review.
Adhi Priamarizki, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, voiced a nuanced view: “Rafale is one of the best jets in the world right now. But buying sophisticated platforms without the know-how to operate them can be a strategic liability. You need doctrine, training, and integration.”
This view has gained traction in Indonesia’s defence circles, where there is increasing discussion of complementing high-tech acquisitions with domestic capacity-building and joint training programmes.
Some analysts have even floated the possibility of diversifying airpower investments toward less expensive but more interoperable platforms—such as the Saab Gripen, KF-21 Boramae, or future upgrades of Indonesia’s existing F-16 fleet.
For now, Indonesian officials have not signalled any formal changes to the Rafale procurement. The first six jets are still expected to arrive between February and August 2026, with follow-on deliveries continuing through 2029.
However, behind closed doors, sources indicate that Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto has ordered a classified review of the Rafale deal. The review reportedly includes input from air force officers, intelligence agencies, and external defence consultants to assess whether the platform remains fit-for-purpose in Indonesia’s rapidly evolving threat environment.
If the review recommends changes, they could take several forms:
- Delaying Deliveries: To allow more time for additional testing and evidence to emerge.
- Reducing the Order: Acquiring fewer jets and investing in supplementary platforms.
- Reconfiguring Doctrine: Updating Indonesia’s operational doctrines to better integrate Rafale capabilities with domestic needs.
- Boosting Training: Partnering with France or other nations for pilot training and tactical development.
Indonesia stands at a crossroads. On one hand, its Rafale deal symbolizes a bold step toward airpower modernization and regional strategic autonomy. On the other, it risks being tethered to an aircraft that may not have proven its worth in high-intensity conflict.
As more facts emerge from the India-Pakistan conflict, Jakarta will need to balance strategic patience with operational realism. The credibility of its air force—and its standing as a rising middle power in Asia—may well depend on the decisions it makes in the coming months.
Discussion about this post