First-quarter earnings season kicks off this week and Goldman Sachs analysts see upward earnings revisions driving several stocks higher. S & P 500 estimates have been revised down 1.8% over the past three months as analysts digest the potential impact of inflation and other macroeconomic data on companies’ fundamentals. “Our single stock analysts’ price targets imply 14.9% upside over the next year for the weighted average of S & P 500 companies in our coverage, above the 10% average ahead of earnings season over the past 11 years,” Goldman analyst John Marshall said in a note Wednesday morning. Goldman highlighted several stocks where its analysts are out of consensus. Last quarter, single stock volatility on earnings events were near a decade high, Marshall said. His team expects moves on companies’ earnings days to remain elevated “even as non-earnings day moves decline with macro volatility.” Here are eight of Goldman’s upside picks, and two short ideas: Ally Financial could see one of the biggest day-of moves when the company reports its financial results next Wednesday, Goldman said. Its analysts are projecting 7% earnings growth for the first quarter and 5% over the next four quarters. The shares could move 12.2% the day of, according to the note. BNY Mellon is another financial stock the firm expects will post good earnings growth for Q1, at 15%. Over the next year, earnings could rise 11%. The company will also report next week. Industrial stocks could be big movers too, according to Goldman. It highlighted Deere , with a projected 5% move that is roughly in line with how the stock has fared on average over the past two years. Macy’s is expected to post 3% earnings growth for the first quarter, and shares could move 8%, according to the analysts. That’s smaller than the 11% average of the previous eight quarters. Goldman also named Amgen , Pfizer , Cleveland-Cliffs and Microsoft in its upside ideas. On the flipside, it named home-furnishing company RH and chipmaker Western Digital among its downside picks. Goldman expects RH to report a 16% decrease in earnings for Q1, which could move the stock about 8% on the day of. Meanwhile, Western Digital could move roughly the same amount when it reports at the end of the month. The chipmaker’s earnings are projected to fall 7% in the most recent quarter, Goldman said. – CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Goldman’s top trades heading into earnings season
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