Liverpool looking uncatchable with eight EPL games to go

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Liverpool got back on track, Arsenal is running out of games and Cinderella bubbles are bursting as the Premier League reaches its sprint to the finish.

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After an international break and an FA Cup weekend, the Premier League swung back into action with a round of midweek matches that provided some telling results.

Arsenal had two steps forward and one step back as they beat Fulham to cut Liverpool’s lead to nine, got a goal from returning forward Buyako Saka after a couple of months out with a hamstring injury, but lost key defender Gabriel with the same injury.

The Brazilian centre back has been ruled out for the rest of the season, which not only hurts their chances of catching Liverpool, but is less than ideal with a Champions League quarterfinal against Real Madrid in the cards.

Liverpool held its nerve and beat a game Everton squad 1-0 in an intense derby — it was the Toffees first loss in nine matches — to restore the Reds’ lead to 12 points with just eight games to go.

While mathematically possible, Liverpool has lost just once all year and to expect it to drop 13 points (its goal difference is 13 better than Arsenal’s) in their last eight, while Arsenal would have to run the table is looking significantly unlikely.

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The relegation spots are all but sealed, but the scrap for that last Champions League spot gained some clarity this week.

Brighton, Fulham and Bournemouth losing has really ended their dreams of unlikely Champions League qualification. Aston Villa and Newcastle are the hard chargers, but it’s still Manchester City hanging onto that last spot.

From City with 51 points to Villa with 48, that’s four clubs in the fight for that final position. Brighton will still feel they’re in the hunt with 47 points, but it’s not just the four points they have to make up (in reality five because their plus-3 goal difference is so far behind the other clubs), but it’s the five clubs they have to climb over. With games running out you need more than just one other result to go your way.

Villa is hitting form at the right time and have a two-legged Champions League quarterfinal with PSG to navigate as well.

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This weekend, the Villans feature in one of the biggest games as they take on third-place Nottingham Forest, which has won three in a row.

The fact that Forest is so heavily entrenched in the Top Four — they’re six points clear of Man City — is another tremendous story from this season. It’s not been a fluke, as they’ve scored six more goals than Villa this season and given up 10 fewer. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have surrendered fewer goals than Forest all season.

Newcastle really is in a great vein of form and having Leicester this weekend will put the pressure on the other teams scrapping for that final spot.

It’s crucial for Newcastle to get into the Top Four as there’s talk some of their top players — including Alexander Isak, Bruno Guimares — will want out if they go another year without top-level European competition and the extra broadcast and prize revenue will help them balance the books and allow them to buy more expensive players.

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Their run-in is far from easy as they still have to play Villa, Brighton, Chelsea and Arsenal.

City has a derby this weekend, going to Manchester United. On paper, you’d consider City to keep rolling, but they’ve lost to United once already this season and are missing Erling Haaland to injury.

But they do really have the easiest remaining schedule of those left in that top four fight. They do have to play Villa and fading Bournemouth, but they get Wolves, Everton, Southampton as well.

Without trophies, qualification or glory to play for, there are teams who are worth watching out for this weekend. There are players who may want to move on if they don’t feel their team is moving in the right direction and there’s managers whose jobs may under threat.

Three of the so-called “Big Six” who will be making decisions on players and bosses as they watch how to finish the season are Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea.

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It would be wild to see Chelsea change its manager yet again, but the way the Blues have fallen off since the calendar turned to 2025 has brought whispers of them moving on from Enzo Maresca after just one season. Certainly if they get into the Champions League he’ll be safe, but if they fall away, don’t put it past the Blues owners to chop and change yet again.

Spurs have been leaning on the injury excuse all season, but no matter how you slice it, 14th place is not where this club expects to be and they may feel like Ange Postcoglu is moving the club in the wrong direction.

At United, there’s no doubt they expected more under Ruben Amorim and may feel obligated to give him at least a transfer window to shape the team in his own vision, but 13th for them is a disaster and the way they’ve looked since they fired Erik ten Hag and brought in Amorim must have them suffering pangs of buyer’s remorse.

For United, it’s more likely these last eight games will provide a road map for which players stay and which get moved on, but if they embarrass themselves in games like this weekend’s derby, it could have them considering a change of direction at manager as well.

This weekend’s slate

Saturday: Everton vs Arsenal; Crystal Palace vs Brighton; Ipswich vs Wolves; West Ham vs Bournemouth; Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest.

Sunday: Brentford vs Chelsea; Fulham vs Liverpool; Tottenham vs Southampton; Manchester United vs Manchester City; Leicester vs Newcastle.

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