NFL Conference Championship betting preview: Can we expect more unders?

Fans of the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars and Giants had their hearts ripped out and seasons ended last week, but you know who had it worse? Any bettor who had all of the overs.

Favourites and underdogs went 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and home teams were 3-1 straight up (SU) last week but the story of the Divisional Round was all about the unders. All four games finished under the listed totals even though three of the advancing teams posted at least 27 points.

With perhaps the NFL’s four most dominant defensive lines remaining, points could be hard to come by for a second consecutive week. The battles in the trenches should be epic.

The NFC Championship is a dream matchup of dynamic offences and elite defensive units, while over in the AFC it’s an anticipated rematch of last year’s Championship game that went down to the wire.

Here’s quick a look at both games this weekend with moneyline and ATS odds, totals, plus some key betting stats and preferred picks (12-11 in playoffs).

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49ERS (+130) @ EAGLES (-155) | Sunday 3:00 p.m. ET
Spread: 49ers +2.5/Eagles -2.5
Total: 46.5
SF record ATS: 13-6 | Over/Under: 10-9
PHI record ATS: 9-9 | Over/Under: 10-8

Both NFC teams covered as chalk in the Divisional Round. Philadelphia is 8-2 SU at home this season and 7-3 ATS (all 10 times as the favourite). Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has covered (7-0 ATS) every time his team is favoured by less than 10 points at home.

The 49ers haven’t lost with Brock Purdy behind centre and covered the spread in all but one of those games. San Francisco wasn’t accustomed to being in the underdog role this season but the one time they were road dogs they covered easily and won outright in late October against the Rams. Kyle Shanahan-coached teams are 7-1 ATS in the playoffs.

Philly went 2-1 in games this season when they had a rest advantage, while San Fran was 3-0 SU when playing with a rest disadvantage; the Eagles have a one-day rest advantage over the 49ers this week.

The past five playoff games at Lincoln Financial Field have gone under the total. The Philly faithful are always extra boisterous when there’s more on the line and when the weather is such that they can see their own breath.

MJ’s preferred picks: Eagles -2.5, Under 46.5

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BENGALS (+125) @ CHIEFS (-130) | Sunday 6:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Bengals +1.5/Chiefs -1.5
Total: 48.0
CIN record ATS: 13-5 | Over/Under: 7-10-1
KC record ATS: 6-11-1 | Over/Under: 8-10

This line has moved slightly yet frequently throughout the week, opening with the Chiefs as 1.5-point favourites before things flipflopped Cincinnati’s way as Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury situation looked murkier than it currently does. The health and mobility of the Kansas City’s superstar quarterback is the main storyline heading into Sunday’s final game. Many of Mahomes best moments happen while he’s on the move, either by design or when improvising.

Mahomes was a full participant in practice Friday, the Chiefs are back to being favoured and the majority of the public is siding with the visiting team now that the Bengals have settled as the underdog. Cincinnati is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when dogs with two of them coming on the road. Zac Taylor’s team was 10-1 both SU and ATS in non-division games and 8-2 ATS on the road.

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Joe Burrow is 3-0 all-time against the Chiefs (2-0 regular season, 1-0 playoffs) and his offensive line held up just fine against Buffalo last week despite being without guard Alex Cappa and tackle Jonah Williams. Can the o-line depth prevail again this week? That may depend on how much of a disrupting force Chiefs’ Chris Jones ends up being. As was the case in last year’s AFC Championship, this game could ultimately come down to how well Burrow and his o-line fare in the face of an intense pass rush.

Chiefs bettors are reeling from a backdoor Jaguars cover. It’s something we’ve seen all season with Andy Reid’s team only going 6-11-1 ATS and just 2-5-1 ATS specifically as home favourites.

The past three times these teams played the game was won by a Bengals field goal. There was a 34-31 final and the two most recent meetings both ended 27-24. The AFC Championship in 2022 saw Burrow and the Bengals battle back from a 21-3 first-half deficit.

Can Kansas City snap Cincy’s streak and reclaim “Burrowhead Stadium” as their own while simultaneously booking a trip to the Super Bowl?

MJ’s preferred picks: Chiefs -1.5, Under 48

(Odds, plus listed point spreads and totals, via Sports Interaction as of Friday and subject to change; moneyline odds rounded to nearest multiple of five and subject to change; trends via Covers and TeamRankings)

More from Sportsnet

NFC Championship Preview: A battle of dynamic offences vs. elite defences

AFC Championship Preview: Can Burrow’s Bengals stay perfect against Chiefs?

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