Just as a rising tide can lift all boats, a roaring tsunami can sink even the largest ships. In this case 3 huge blue-painted ships named Governor Walz, Governor Whitmer, and Governor Evers.
The coming Red tsunami is putting races that in normal times would be out of reach for Republicans in play. That sure seems to be the case here in Middle America.
MINNESOTA
What caught my eye this morning was the buzz around the governor’s race in my own state, Minnesota. Here in Minnesota, Republicans have gotten extremely good at losing statewide offices–It has been 18 years since a Republican won a statewide office, and longer than that since a gubernatorial candidate succeeded in winning without significant assistance from a left-leaning third party candidate taking votes away from the Democrat.
Our Republican political establishment is so used to losing that sometimes it seems they don’t even try to win. They whinge, they complain about candidate quality, they believe everybody to the right of John McCain is too conservative.
Minnesota is a terrible place to be a conservative. The only reason I stay here is for the weather. The deadly winters, the sticky summer heat, the muddy springs. They call to me.
Republicans are competitive in legislative races, so the money tends to flow there. As long as the Republicans can slow down the Democrat destruction of our state with legislative majorities in at least one house of the legislature our Republican establishment is happy. So they tend to abandon our statewide candidates immediately, blaming them for being losers.
Yet Scott Jensen, who was neither the favorite of the Establishment nor of many conservatives, has managed to steadily rise in the polls despite being ridiculously outspent and being the subject of an endless number of attack ads that make him sound like Jack the Ripper. Or at least a Jack the Ripper who won’t kill babies because he hates women.
The Establishment still seems firmly committed to the idea he is a loser, but the rest of the state is not so sure.
I wish I could say that this was due to the brilliance of Jensen–and he really is not a bad candidate at all, despite the criticisms–but I believe that the key to his steady rise in the polls is generalized disgust with Democrats. Minnesotans may be in the habit of voting for Democrats, but as with smokers they are finding that the habit is pretty disgusting when you think about it.
I’m not sure they are going to quit the habit–as a former smoker I know how hard it is to quit addictions–but I eventually did it for my own health, and Minnesotans may do the same with voting Democrat. At least this year.
RealClearPolitics rates the race a toss-up, with a projected Democrat hold. That seems fair to me, but it also tells us that Walz is getting dragged down by the prevailing political climate, and the farther into shore the tsunami reaches, the less likely that Walz survives. The issue terrain is terrible for him, he is embroiled in the largest COVID fraud scandal in the country, and he is just not a nice guy. He is generally being treated with kid gloves by the media, but with a massive $250 million fraud being committed by a cabal of Democrats both inside and outside elective office, he can’t escape the coverage entirely. His administration facilitated the fraud by looking the other way even after it was clearly happening, and at least a few people are aware of it.
I think it’s possible Jensen wins, against what in a normal year would be long odds. Walz won by nearly 12 points in 2018, and could lose this year.
WISCONSIN
Next door in WI–a state I have been following a bit since it is so close, things look equally perilous for Democrats. In the few articles I have written about the WI Senate race I have been softly predicting an R victory, and I think that is quite possible as well in the governor’s race.
Wisconsin in recent years has been pretty friendly territory for Republicans, at least compared to Minnesota. Trump barely lost there in 2020 and should have won it. If I put on my tin foil hat, I would say he did. But I am no election denier, oh no. So he lost by less than a point.
The current incumbent is Democrat Tony Evers. He won a squeaker of a race in 2018, which was not a good year for Republicans. So you would expect him to have to fight to keep his seat.
Yet until recently Evers had a decent lead in the polls and politicos had not put the race high up the competitive scale, but recent trends have gone all the Republican’s way.
I know next to nothing about Tim Michels, so I can’t say whether he is an amazing candidate, but in 2022 do you really have to? A vulnerable Democrat in a tough political environment has a lot to worry about even running against a generic opponent, and a competent campaign should put Michels over the top. It would genuinely surprise me if Michels didn’t win, in a way a Walz victory in Minnesota would not. RCP rates the race a toss up but predicts a Republican pick up.
MICHIGAN
My wife hails from the great state of Michigan, so I have been commiserating with her about the likely victory of Gretchen Whitmer.
Whitmer, as you may recall, was one of the horrible COVID fanatics at the height of the pandemic. Smug, arrogant, and appealing to the morally superior set in a way that grates on people like me, Whitmer still seemed ready to cruise to victory.
Now I am not so sure. Recent trends in the polls show the race tightening and the prevailing mood today on issues that raised Whitmer to prominence has moved away from her. Some people saw her as a tiger mom type during the pandemic’s height, but she now looks more like a Karen. Her ties to Biden are tighter than average and her national prominence on COVID issues is likely now working against her.
Tudor Dixon, her Republican opponent seems to be an appealing candidate, and she has actually scored the endorsement of one of Detroit’s newspapers. There is a very clear contrast between the candidates, with Dixon leaning into rather than avoiding controversy. I think this is serving her well and may even pull her over the top. And, as you can see, RealClearPolitics thinks so too, projecting a Republican pick up despite polls showing her 3 points behind in the RCP average.
Should Dixon win it would be huge blow against the Republican Establishment who thought her too controversial, too Trumpy. She’s a proud culture warrior running against a Karen. I desperately hope she wins just to annoy the right set of people. Icing on the cake: Tulsi Gabbard is campaigning for her.
BOTTOM LINE:
Predictions are difficult, especially about the future. So take all this with every appropriate wishy-washy, ‘ahem,’ and a$$-covering non-statement you can imagine. But I think all 3 Republicans are more likely to win than not.
Minnesota, in my mind, is a toss up and I am going out on a limb and against the reasoning part of my brain to predict a Jensen victory, but the heart wants what the heart wants.
In a normal year Democrats would probably take 2 out of 3, but this is no normal year. Minnesota and Michigan would be shoe-in’s in a neutral or Democrat friendly political environment. Wisconsin would depend upon candidate quality, but the state has become more Republican friendly as Democrats have become more unfriendly to deplorables, I mean normal people.
I would ask you not to hold me to this prediction, but I know you will. So prepare yourself to razz me mercilessly on November 9.
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