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It’s silly season. We’ve gone through the finals, the World Cup and the November 1 deadline after which, NRL players who are out of contract for 2024 can discuss terms with other clubs. With that in mind, we’re launching Smart Signings, our new series on who NRL clubs should be targeting to address their biggest weaknesses, using the players that are actually available to them.
How do you improve on perfection? No, really. The Panthers barely lose any games of rugby league and have won two comps in succession.
Marching into 2023, the bookies have Penrith installed as clear favourites for a three-peat and they’re right to do so.
Even though nobody has won three back-to-back since Parramatta in the early 80s, one has to approach every season on its merits and it’s hard to look past a team that has won 83% of its games since a very significant rule change empowered their style of football.
Their record since the six again came in bears repeating: 62 wins, one draw, ten losses. When you factor in the defeats due to resting players, Origin and the time Nathan Cleary got sent off in the first half, it drops to just four.
The teams that have defeated the Panthers when they have been at full strength are as followed: Melbourne in the 2020 Grand Final; Souths in the 2021 Finals (later avenged) and Parramatta (once last year, once in June 2020).
The hope for everyone else has to be that Penrith either get worse or the opponents get better – or, I suppose, the third path that the opponents get a bit luckier, too, given how injuries ended the Roosters in 2021 and the Storm in 2022 before they had a chance to challenge Ivan Cleary’s men.
I wrote deep dive on the tactics of the Panthers at the start of the finals last year and gave a blueprint for how to beat them, based on the few sides that had managed to in 2022. Obviously, that was easier said than done as they made it through to the final and won, in the end, at a canter.
The trouble with success is that it costs money, either before or afterwards. Penrith are very much in the afterwards stage of their process and are paying through the nose: they’ve had to let Api Koroisau go to the Tigers and Viliame Kikau to the Bulldogs, plus a few fringe players in Sean O’Sullivan (Dolphins) and Charlie Staines (Tigers).
That breaks up two of the key aspects of Panthers footy. Koroisau was an underrated cog in the machine, providing perfect service to the Cleary/Isaah Yeo masterpiece in midfield, and the succession plan is going to be difficult.
Right now, it looks like a dual 9s situation with Mitch Kenny – who can do Api’s defensive stuff, but is a big downgrade offensively – alternating with Soni Luke, who is essentially the opposite.
They’ll give that a red hot crack, however, and if they can get any improvement in Luke’s tackling, he’ll take more and more minutes. Let’s hope he’s been at the KFC all winter and put on a bit of timber.
Kikau’s place will be taken by Luke Garner, a signing so smart that I’m annoyed I didn’t get a chance to recommend it.
Garner is a similar statistical profile to Kikau, especially when you equalise for the fact that one was playing in an optimised system built around his strengths while the other was at the Wests Tigers.
They also picked up Zac Hoskings from the Broncos, another incredibly shrewd use of their salary cap, and have Scott Sorensen on hand to potentially transition to taking more minutes. It’s all very clever work.
Panthers coach Ivan Cleary defended his players’ behaviour. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
I really don’t worry about the Panthers at all going into 2023. Their attacking production seems likely to continue with the backline intact and their defensive linespeed is based on their attacking production – for a longer explanation, here’s why that matters so much.
Even if they come back to the pack a little bit as a result of Koroisau leaving, they’re still ahead and their cohesion will barely drop given both replacements in the spine position are internal promotions.
The biggest threat to their dominance comes from bad luck, because they have been a little fortunate on the injury front – at least compared to Melbourne and the Roosters – and the huge toll that comes from having all your players play all the rep footy will catch up.
Eight Panthers played the World Cup Final and came back to pre-season early ahead of the World Club Challenge, so don’t be surprised if they start slowly. They’ll likely catch up later, but it might make the Minor Premiership race a bit more interesting at least.
There is also the potential for other teams to get a lot better. Souths and the Roosters looked ominous in late 2022 and are earlier in their collective journeys, so you would expect improvement into 2023, and Parramatta get at least one year out of their 2022 spine, plus Josh Hodgson. The chasers will be better in 2023 and that, obviously, imperils the Panthers’ quest for three in a row.
The smarts will have to be at their best, however, over the course of 2024. There’s nobody that they need or realistically will pick up in 2023, barring a major injury, but the impending departure of Stephen Crichton presents a serious head scratcher for the Panthers.
The Panthers side that won the State Cup last year had Robert Jennings – now also departed – as one centre and Jack Cole, who typically players as a five eighth – in the centres. Thomas Jenkins has been a standout there but might end up favoured as a winger in first grade, at least to start.
That situation will likely force the Panthers to go to market, and there are some big fish that they could land in 2024.
Herbie Farnworth is a statistical clone of Crichton – equated for possession, he’s actually better – but has expressed an interest in playing fullback that might see him in the same situation that saw Critta leave. Dylan Edwards is going nowhere there.
Will Penisini is also available, though statistically a downgrade on what Crichton brings. It would annoy Parramatta fans a lot too, which has to be worth something, however unscientific.
The data, however, presents a clear standout: Jesse Ramien. The Sharks centre exploded last year and, while is yardage carries are marginally worse than Crichton’s, the context of them is significant. He’s taking far tougher carries and turning them into faster play the balls. If you want to lean into the backline yardage game, he’s your man.
He’s also just as creative as Critta, with similar numbers for line breaks and assists but a more physical style, breaking more tackles and finding more offloads. Brian To’o, if he sticks to that wing, would love playing outside Jesse Ramien.
The clear advantage for Crichton is in defence, but it’s not statistically significant enough to think that it might not be as a result of playing for the Panthers with their associated linespeed.
The numbers don’t lie. He’s a career centre, so unlikely to move, and is on a reported $200k per year less than what Crichton is on now. If the Panthers aren’t looking hard at the Shire, they should be.
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