Authors: Cameryn James, Priscila Putzulu
In the midst of a global trend towards right-wing populism, Guatemala’s Presidential election made history. In 2023, Bernardo Arévalo’s Semilla party ran on a progressive, anti-corruption platform, signifying hope for the working class and for Indigenous people who represent 43% of the electorate. Despite his landslide victory, the pacto de corruptos tried to disqualify Arévalo on bogus charges to overturn the results. Through sustained protests led by Indigenous leaders and supported by the international community, Arévalo was inaugurated in January 2024.
On April 23rd, the Attorney General’s office arrested Vice-Minister Luis Pacheco and Héctor Chaclán, Indigenous leaders of the 48 Cantones de Totonicapán. This act is an escalation of state repression and censorship. While both men were accused of terrorism and obstruction, it is clear that they are being criminalized in retaliation for leading protests in support of President Bernardo Arévalo and against Attorney General Consuelo Porras in 2023. These arrests illustrate the disastrous extent to which Guatemalan rule of law has been eroded in recent years.
For over a decade, Guatemala was a global leader in the fight against corruption due to the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and the Special Prosecutor’s Office against Impunity (FECI). The CICIG was backed by the United Nations, and the FECI was created to prosecute top-tier corruption cases investigated by the CICIG. While in operation, it worked closely with local judges and prosecutors to bring numerous corrupt actors to justice, including three former presidents, a vice-president, government ministers and retired military officers. Despite receiving threats to their personal safety and professional reputations, these brave judges and attorneys led the fight against systemic corruption in Guatemala. However, their success in securing justice against corrupt officials provoked a powerful backlash from the pacto de corruptos, a corrupt network of political, economic, military, and criminal actors in Guatemala. This backlash resulted in Guatemala’s return to post-conflict patterns of corruption and impunity.
In 2018, the first Trump administration withdrew U.S. financial support for the Commission over unfounded claims of Russian interference. This empowered then-president Jimmy Morales to expel the CICIG from Guatemala in July 2019, forcing many prominent anti-corruption justice operators into exile. It is evident that the Administration bargained for Morales’ support in implementing inhumane migration policies by withdrawing support from the CICIG. At the time, Morales was being investigated by the CICIG for corruption. In this ham-handed attempt to curb Central American migration by undermining Guatemalan rule of law, President Trump entrenched the very conditions that have since led thousands of Guatemalans to seek refuge in the United States.
The backlash reflects the power of the pacto de corruptos, who re-established control after the dismantling of CICIG. At the center of this network is Attorney General Consuelo Porras. Appointed in 2018 and reappointed in 2022, Porras has been widely accused of obstructing justice, shielding corrupt officials, and criminalizing those investigating wrongdoing. Her dismissal of FECI chief Juan Francisco Sandoval led to his exile and drew international condemnation. Under her leadership, the Public Ministry has pursued spurious charges against journalists, prosecutors, and judges, most notably the 2022 arrest of journalist José Rubén Zamora, seen by many as politically motivated. In conducting an interview with an exiled justice operator, we learned that Porras’ connections to organized crime groups allow her to persecute her enemies even beyond Guatemala’s borders; our source reported receiving death threats from groups in Mexico, as well as reports that they were being tracked in the United States.
The U.S., EU, Canada, and the U.K. have sanctioned Porras and her accomplice Rafael Curruchiche of the FECI for undermining democracy and attempting to block Arévalo’s transition to power. Despite repeated public calls for her resignation and the international sanctions, she remains protected by Guatemalan law and is set to stay in office until 2026. The inability to remove her from office poses a serious obstacle to Arévalo’s reform agenda. The new Administration has taken some encouraging steps, including promoting merit-based appointments and attracting international investment. Yet, reform efforts remain vulnerable to internal sabotage and elite interference, especially within the judiciary.
Arévalo’s presidency is a test of whether democratic renewal is possible in the face of entrenched corruption and impunity. His ability to govern is dependent on public mobilization, international support, and on the successful removal of Attorney General Porras from her position. Attempts to remove her have been unsuccessful given her allies in the Guatemalan congress and recent changes to Guatemalan law that diminish the president’s authority to remove a sitting attorney general. Reforms to this law are unlikely given Arévalo’s lack of Congressional majority. With this complex situation in mind, the Attorney General elections will be crucial for how Arévalo will continue his legacy. Given his limited options at the moment, his ability to select the future Attorney General out of a shortlist of six candidates, is one of his few remaining levers of power (See infographic below for more information on the election process).
Given Trump’s record of contributing to the erosion of Guatemala’s judicial system, and his recent alliances with undemocratic leaders like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, there is little hope that his Administration will support efforts to uphold the rule of law in Guatemala. Instead, international civil society and human rights organizations must focus on supporting Guatemalan NGOs who educate and organize the public. It is vital that Guatemalan citizens understand the impact of the attorney general elections on their lives. Laying out what is at stake in this election process and who the candidates are, could prevent any tampering with election processes from going unnoticed. This effort can be bolstered by organizing international governments to release statements regarding the electoral process, making it clear that the election is being closely observed. These statements should also include support for a mission by the Organization of American States (OAS) aiming to monitor the electoral process. As an international community, we can promote transparency in this crucial election, and help safeguard Guatemala’s resources for its everyday citizens.
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