Bangladesh’s foreign policy is shifting. With the recent political change at home and an increasingly volatile global order, Bangladesh is adopting a “looking east” policy. For rapid economic growth, regional connectivity, and strategic diversification, the country has been hoping to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The question is no longer whether Bangladesh is willing to join ASEAN, but whether it is ready and also whether ASEAN is prepared to embrace its South Asian neighbor.
Indeed, the stakes are high. ASEAN has a market of over 680 million people, with a combined GDP exceeding $4.5 trillion – the world largest regional organization outside Europe. The bloc acts as a buffer amid great power rivalries, and it has already proven its capacity to accelerate economic transformation and robust regional cooperation. ASEAN presents a timely and strategic opportunity for a country like Bangladesh, which, having just achieved its second liberation from authoritarian rule, is grappling with economic uncertainty and navigating strained ties with its traditional partners.
The Economic Case for Membership
ASEAN can offer an alternative growth horizon for Bangladesh. More than 85 percent of Bangladesh’s exports are reliant on the ready-made garments sector, which is concentrated on Europe and North America.
However, the world is changing. In the emerging multipolar international order, given the country’s economic progress, Bangladesh will lose preferential trade access to these markets, reducing its exports by 7 to 14 percent. A pivot to ASEAN, hence, is not just desirable but necessary.
ASEAN’s 10 member states have already transformed their economic structures by liberalizing trade, investing in technology, and integrating into global supply chains. For example, Vietnam has become a manufacturing hub for electronics and a top destination for foreign direct investment because of its active participation in ASEAN and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Indeed, Bangladesh has similar aspirations. Its pharmaceutical, ICT, and agro-processing industries are entered a stage of maturity, but without regional integration, these sectors are struggling to scale.
ASEAN membership would provide Bangladesh duty free access to this vast regional market, diversified trade partners, and the capacity to negotiate as a part of the bloc – multilaterally rather than bilaterally. Joining RCEP, of which all ASEAN states are members, might augment exports of Bangladesh by 17 percent and its GDP by 0.26 percent, as per the report of Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission.
Strategic Connectivity and Geopolitical Leverage
Geographically, Bangladesh is positioned at the intersection of South and Southeast Asia with a vast access to the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, Bangladesh can serve as a critical bridge connecting ASEAN to the Indian subcontinent. Infrastructure projects such as the Matarbari deep-sea port and the Asian Highway Network could transform the country into a logistics hub, enhancing regional connectivity and sinking ASEAN’s dependency on narrow maritime chokepoints.
Not only that, but membership would provide Bangladesh with greater geopolitical leverage, since the country seeks to move beyond an India-centric strategy and manage its growing dependence on China. ASEAN would provide a balanced platform for engaging with multiple regional powers, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, through ASEAN-led efforts: the East Asia Summit and ASEAN+3.
ASEAN has effectively promoted its “centrality” during an era of growing U.S.-China rivalry, maintaining its autonomy while controlling for external pressures. Bangladesh can increase its foreign policy options, negotiate better trade agreements, and draw in vital investments in energy and infrastructure by adopting this diplomatic stance.
A Youthful Workforce and Demographic Dividend
Bangladesh’s greatest asset is its demographic dividend, with over 65 percent of its population under the age of 35. ASEAN could benefit from this young and dynamic labor pool. Under ASEAN frameworks, labor mobility agreements may offer good employment opportunities for Bangladeshi workers in myriad sectors including agriculture, construction, care services, and ICT.
By contrast, Bangladesh can learn from ASEAN members’ experiences in vocational training, upskilling, automation, thereby preparing its workforce for the future of work. Shared growth can be achieved through deeper collaboration in education, digital services, and start-up ecosystems.
The Rohingya Crisis: A Thorny Hurdle
Even with the strong case for integration, several hurdles remain. The unsolved Rohingya issue is the most critical. Bangladesh has long called for international pressure on Myanmar to repatriate the more than 1 million refugees who have been sheltering in Cox’s Bazar since 2017. However, Myanmar’s membership in the bloc and ASEAN’s consensus-based architecture makes any significant action challenging.
ASEAN’s role has been limited to humanitarian efforts, falling short of addressing root causes. Bangladesh’s accession could be halted by Myanmar, creating a diplomatic deadlock. On the other hand, closer engagement with empathetic ASEAN members — Indonesia and Malaysia, both of whom have supported the Bangladesh’s position on the Rohingya issue – could eventually galvanize stronger regional support.
The Fear of Asymmetric Competition
With the advantages, there are risks. Entering ASEAN’s free trade framework might expose Bangladesh’s nascent industries – electronics, pharmaceuticals, and light engineering – to competition from more advanced economies like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Although this concern is valid, the solution lies not in retreat but in preparation.
Bangladesh should invest in innovation, research and development (R&D), and value-added manufacturing. In lieu of fearing competition, it should view ASEAN membership as a catalyst for industrial upgrading and policy reform. Bangladesh can gradually upgrade its capabilities with proper safeguards and smart trade strategies.
A Step Forward, Not a Silver Bullet
Bangladesh’s aspiration to join ASEAN is not a silver bullet for its geopolitical and economic challenges, but it is a strategic step in the right direction. As chief adviser of Bangladesh’s interim government, Dr. Muhammad Yunus, noted during his visits to Jakarta, and Kuala Lumpur, “Bangladesh can be a bridge between ASEAN and SAARC.”
For ASEAN, bringing in Bangladesh would signify a bold extension of its regional vision. It would connect two of Asia’s most populous and promising sub-regions, while for Bangladesh, it would mark a milestone in its arduous journey from aid-dependence to strategic autonomy.
The fact remains that ambition alone is not adequate. The new Bangladesh, under the interim government led by Yunus, must show it is ready to reform, ready to lead and ready to contribute – not merely to consume – the benefits of regional cooperation.
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