Why Georgia’s Runoff Is Still a Must-Win for Democrats

The Georgia runoff vote this week won’t determine control of the Senate, even though Herschel Walker seems to think it will. But the stakes of the neck-and-neck contest are high nonetheless: Not only would a Tuesday win for Raphael Warnock expand the Democrats’ majority in the upper chamber—it would put an exclamation point on the message voters sent the GOP in the 2022 midterms. “We can’t be complacent,” former President Barack Obama said at an Atlanta rally last week. “We have to run through the tape. That means all of us doing our part to make sure that Raphael Warnock goes back to the United States Senate.”

Democrats outperformed expectations in November, defying typical midterm headwinds and Republican expectations of a “red wave” to retain Senate control and limit the GOP House majority to just a handful of seats. It wasn’t a total Democratic triumph, of course. But it did serve as a pretty clear rebuke of Donald Trump, whose handpicked candidates were defeated in a number of key races. Those candidates—Doug Mastriano, Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake—were objectively terrible in quality. But Walker, the former football star, is almost certainly the worst of them—a man so sorely unqualified for public office that his intellectual vacuity has often overshadowed the disturbing allegations that have been raised about him throughout the campaign, including new accusations of domestic abuse from an ex-girlfriend over the weekend. That the race has remained close, despite Walker’s obvious incompetence and endless parade of scandal, speaks to the brokenness of American politics. But a Warnock victory would perhaps underscore that most Americans want to see the system fixed. 

“He was an amazing running back,” Warnock said of Walker in a campaign appearance with Obama in Atlanta. “And come next Tuesday, we’re going to send him running back to Texas,” Warnock continued, referring to recent reporting that showed Walker had listed his property in Georgia as a rental as recently as last year. 

Warnock, whose 2020 victory helped Democrats secure control of the Senate in the first place, outpaced the scandal-plagued Walker in the initial round of voting in November, and he is leading the Trump-backed Republican in polls. Democrats have also been heartened by huge, record-breaking early voting turnout, while Republicans seem increasingly resigned to the prospect of a Walker loss. “I think a lot of Republicans are hoping we’ll be pleasantly surprised, but there aren’t a lot of indications out there to base that on,” former Cobb County GOP Chair Jason Shepherd told Politico last week. “Just a lot of hope and faith in things unseen. It’s the Christmas season, after all.” But Democrats aren’t taking the race for granted, and Warnock himself warned against celebrating too early in a Sunday sermon. Hence the Obama appearance in Atlanta on Thursday, in which the former president absolutely shredded Walker over his bizarre stump speech rant about vampires and werewolves. 

Should Warnock hold his seat, Democrats will hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, solidifying their committee control and making it easier for them to confirm Joe Biden’s judicial nominations—including more progressive picks that could otherwise be held up by more conservative Democrats like Joe Manchin. As Obama noted, the difference between a 50 seat and 51 seat majority is “a lot.”  But Tuesday’s vote is about more than giving the Democratic majority some extra padding. It’s about keeping an extraordinarily unqualified man away from power—and rejecting the GOP’s ugly exercise in cynicism. “Don’t spike the football before you get to the end zone,” Warnock told supporters Sunday. “I need you to bring this one home.”