Fewer promises and more backbone to deliver on the commitments he makes is what economists want to see from President Cyril Ramaphosa when he delivers the State of the Nation address on Thursday.
In his past two State of the Nation Address (SONA) speeches, Ramaphosa made various promises to accelerate economic recovery and job creation, committing to implementing economic reforms and pursuing investment to drive growth and create jobs.
There was big excitement when he promised to make it easier to do business and tackle the challenges small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face. However, it seems that not much has happened.
Prof Jannie Rossouw, visiting professor at the Wits Business School, puts it bluntly:
“Ramaphosa will waffle on for two hours, but will not say anything that will impress us as South Africans. He is quiet quitting and is a clear example of presidential abdication. After Phala Phala he is not even trying to be a good president.”
He says the president can save time at the SONA and just tell South Africans two things: how will he get rid of the Eskom mess, and how will he fix municipalities to enable them to deliver the services we pay for?
“We are not gullible and the president cannot fool us any longer. I have low expectations of Ramaphosa because he keeps disappointing us.”
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The president’s previous SONA promises
Prof Bonke Dumisa, an independent economic analyst, says to start with, the success of Ramaphosa’s government since he took over in 2018 has to be reasonably viewed against the reality that he was continuously undermined and even directly sabotaged by some of his own ANC Cabinet colleagues, who remained loyal to his predecessor.
“He was hesitant or even afraid of rocking the boat, lest the supporters of Zuma, who seemed to have numerical majority on the previous ANC National Executive Committee (NEC), actively campaigned to get him out of office.”
He says people must remember what former ANC Secretary General Ace Magashule publicly said within a few days of Ramaphosa taking over as the ANC president in December 2017 – that Ramaphosa will not complete five years in office.
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“Therefore, Ramaphosa always had to look over his shoulder to see what his ANC detractors were plotting against him instead of totally focusing on service delivery issues.”
About Ramaphosa’s promises to accelerate economic recovery and job creation, Dumisa firstly refers to the promise to improve the railway systems.
“He failed to achieve anything, primarily partly due to past ANC neglect of the railway systems over the past 28 years.”
He points to the state of lawlessness in the country and the inability of the police to stop to the syndicates that are continually stealing railway lines and copper that curtailed the reopening of priority rail corridors.
“Third-party freight rail corridors were initiated but the devil is the detail as government is trying to avoid being accused of selling state owned enterprises to ‘White Monopoly Capital’.”
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Job creation promises
About the president’s promise to create at least a million jobs through the Presidential Employment Stimulus, Dumisa says although it achieved its target numerically, people are not impressed saying those were not permanent jobs and that participants did not get a living wage.
“The problem is that job creation cannot be a reality in South Africa until we completely overhaul the education system to produce people who are required by our economy, instead of the current jobs mismatch and structural unemployment we face.”
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SONA promise to improve ease of doing business
Regarding Ramaphosa’s promise to improve ease of doing business, Dumisa says the president even appointed Sipho Nkosi to be directly in charge.
“South Africa is currently in position 84 out of 190 economies in terms of the World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index. The president said he wants South Africa to at least move to the Top 50 of this Index.”
However, Dumisa says, this is a major challenge as most South African businesses are closing down due to load shedding and other negative economic conditions, as well as lawlessness and crime, all of which result in negative cash flows.
“Government is also afraid of being labelled xenophobic and is, therefore, very reluctant to effectively shut down hundreds of thousands of illegal businesses owned by foreigners, both illegal immigrants and documented immigrants, who effectively pushed out South Africans out of the SME sectors.”
What can the president do to improve his bad record of not delivering on his promises?
“The answer is simply this: now that he has a clear ANC mandate to rule and with better support within the Top 7, better support within the ANC NEC and significant support on the new ANC working committee, NWC, President Matamela Ramaphosa must now have a backbone to deliver on his promises, starting with the Cabinet he will appoint now.”
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